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Strategies & Market Trends : Drillbits & Bottlerockets
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To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (10669)5/11/2001 10:54:35 AM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) of 15481
 
Mrs. P, as you point out today's numbers may factor into the FED's thinking.

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Treasuries continued to get hammered after the Michigan number. Probability of a 50 bp cut now seen at closer to 80% from almost 100% recently. While the Fed shouldn't get carried away with one sentiment reading from the first few days of May, there is no doubt that policy makers get caught up in the emotion of the moment, though hopefully to a lesser extent than the market. Today's reports, coupled with the recent stabilization of the equity market, do significantly reduce the probability of a 50 bp cut, but a 25 bp easing is still close to a sure thing.
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