Michael,
How my question above relates to AAPL??? How much of a positive Q2 earnings report is already figured into the stock price of AAPL? Is it
realistic to believe that an earnings prediction such as Eric Yang's,
or Leonardo, or Gavin Young, combined with sustained growth, would
immediately push AAPL into the 32-35 range?
Welcome to the board. Well, nobody knows how much the factor of
positive Q2 has been factored into the current price. Personally,
I believe it is very limited due to analysts' skeptical attitudes
towards Apple's turning-around.
Apple's still extremely undervalued compared to Dell, Gateway,
Compaq, Microsoft, etc. It only has 3.6b market value, as opposed to
Microsoft's 222b, Dell's 44b, Gateway's 7.2b, and Compaq's 39b.
The market has not adjusted Apple's real value back to the norm yet.
The reason is simple, the money managers want to see more evdience
of Apple's recovery. I think Q2 is very important for those analysts
to adjust their judgements accordingly. It's believed that Jobs
realized the situation and hence I totally bet on his attitudes to
make Q2 with much better perspectives. I think net income will be
within $0.15 - $0.80 based on people's estimates here. But, revenue
is a key to make analysts impressed if it can break the historical
pattern - with 1.6+b.
I put very little on options since it's short-term oriented
speculation, therefore I don't have time-limited pressure.
You are right that Jobs may leak with G3's sales data in Q2 if he
thinks it's a right time to announce. Besides, with G3's sales in
Q2, there are still lots of data unknown which increases the
possibility of revealing such data.
Phil |
