Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 161.20

+2.4%

9:30 AM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10840)	5/8/2004 8:42:39 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 10921

Hi Brian, We are in Q2 '04, so this analysis has plenty of room for revision. Merrill is forecasting EPS of $1.20 for CY05. My model calls for an EPS peak in CY07 at about double CY05, or $2.40. Depending on interest rates, the peak price sometime in CY06 will be 20 to 30 times $2.40, or $48 to $72. Now, if CY04 is too strong, CY05 estimates will be raised, but I will change my peak earnings to 1 and 1/2 times CY05 earnings in CY06. Early, optimistic estimates are primarily useful if the market becomes "irrationally exuberant". If the prices get to the $48 to $72 range long before CY06, sell and don't look back. If prices continue to do nothing, semi and equip sales and revenue reports will refine my model as we move foreward in time.

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