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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 157.46-2.2%Oct 31 9:30 AM EST
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To: The Ox who wrote (10900)2/20/2009 2:39:13 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
RE: "Does this qualify for BLOOD in the streets..."

NO! Traditionally, "BLOOD" was created by the industry's own supply and demand imbalance, and this was against a backdrop of rising unit volumes and healthy macroeconomics. A recovery under these circumstances was fairly well assured and the trick was to pick companies that would benefit the most.

Now, we are in uncharted territory. There was no global semiconductor industry during the Great Depression.

My recommended strategy is to wait for strong indications that the bottom of the macroeconomic mess has passed and the the visibility for a recovery is reasonably clear. At that point, entry into the the semis and semi-equips with the strongest product portfolio and most profitable business model with an intention of holding for an intermediate term recovery should be very rewarding.
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