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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: kash johal who wrote (109579)5/7/2000 2:08:00 AM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (1) of 1576451
 
Kash,

<My best guess is that Intel will have capacity for around 40-42M CPU's in Q4.>

I have been thinking about this capacity issue for a while now and can't quite make any sense of where Intel is headed. Clearly a massive amount of capacity is coming online to support aggressive ramp of large die Timna and Wilamette. Producing 40+M PIIIs in Q4 is probably a cakewalk. It will be interesting to see how Intel manages this. I don't know if there was any time Intel's history 3 new products ramped just before Christmas. Talk about logistical nightmare!

<1M Xeons at $800 ASP = $800M>

Recent data suggest this may be more like 2M.

<2M Willamette at $750 ASP = $1500M>

The ASP sounds highly unlikely and the volume also looks like a stretch.

<20M PIII cumines at $200 ASP =$4000M>

<9M celeronII's at $80 ASP = $720M
10M timna/mb at $80 ASP = $800M >

20M between Timna/Celeron may be right but the mix and ASPs sound a litle high given the MHz lag.

<That adds up to $7.820 Bn a decent growth and still great margins.

Remember that Intel was selling the old celerons and MB's at COST a year or so ago to hurt AMD. Here they still will have a 40% margin on timna.>

Your point about Intel's ability to play with product mix is well taken but about 40Mu of Intel's production will most likely be substantially lower MHz than competition. That probably does not given Intel much leeway in a price war. Unless the management decides to go aggressively after market share without regard for EPS.

Chuck
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