The New York Times has an interesting piece by Adam Nagourney on the possible damage an Arnold governorship might do to GWB.
POLITICAL MEMO
Schwarzenegger Win Could Have Downside for Bush
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: October 6, 2003
nytimes.com
LOS ANGELES, Oct. 5 — President Bush's political advisers have long yearned to win back this most Democratic of states. Accordingly, while wary of the unpredictable forces unleashed by California's tumultuous recall, they were roused by the prospect that Arnold Schwarzenegger could topple Gov. Gray Davis, providing at least a psychic lift to Republicans and a demoralizing blow to Democrats going into 2004.
But now, in the final days of what has turned out to be a very messy election, even some Republicans are wondering if a victory by Mr. Schwarzenegger would be such a good thing for Mr. Bush.
Mr. Bush's advisers have long been concerned that the pleasure of removing Mr. Davis from office would come with a cost: a wheelbarrow of fiscal and governance problems dumped into the lap of an inexperienced new Republican governor.
And now, several Republicans say, the flurry of last-minute stories about Mr. Schwarzenegger's past — including repeated accusations of improper sexual advances toward women and a report that he once expressed admiration for Hitler — suggest that a victory for the actor might prove a dubious prize for the Republican Party, while presenting complications for Mr. Bush in 2004.
Indeed, analysts and some Republicans said on Sunday that Mr. Bush might not want to be too closely associated with a Governor Schwarzenegger, particularly after two years in which the president has made an effort to fortify his standing with two groups that presumably are paying particular attention to events here: women and Jewish voters.
Charles Black, a Republican consultant, said a Schwarzenegger victory might break the rule in politics that says the party that controls a governor's seat has the advantage in a presidential election.
"Given all the problems he'd inherit, there are two questions," Mr. Black said. "No. 1: Will he have the time to devote to a presidential campaign for Bush? And No. 2: How long will he be popular? It didn't take them six months to turn against Davis."
In one sign of the shifting landscape, Mitt Romney, the Republican governor of Massachusetts, changed his mind about coming here to campaign alongside Mr. Schwarzenegger.
The problems a Schwarzenegger victory might pose for Mr. Bush go beyond just women and Jewish voters.
In particular, the stream of allegations that Mr. Schwarzenegger groped women, grabbed them and reached under their clothes has stirred concern among conservatives, who have been at the heart of Mr. Bush's political base.
Some were quick to recall that Mr. Bush, in running for president in 2000, would frequently end speeches by raising his right hand in the air and pledging to "return honor and dignity to the White House" — a not-too-subtle reference to President Bill Clinton's sexual exploits.
"It's a little bit awkward," said Vin Weber, a former Republican congressman, as he contemplated the image of Mr. Bush answering questions about the charges of womanizing faced by Mr. Schwarzenegger.
But he added of the actor: "I think in a case like this, if he gets elected, that is sort of going to be like getting a clean bill of health from voters. If the voters of California say it's O.K., my guess is it's O.K."
Still, Mr. Weber made it clear that he thought many conservatives, who put a premium on issues of morality, were very upset about Mr. Schwarzenegger's admission that he had "behaved badly sometimes" toward women.
"I think it's unacceptable behavior," he said. "I'm incensed by it."
A senior adviser to Mr. Bush played down concerns about Mr. Schwarzenegger and what kind of complications his election — which would establish him as the second most famous elected Republican in the nation — might create for Mr. Bush next year.
The adviser said that with the passage of time, voters outside California would forget the tales of Mr. Schwarzenegger's behavior toward women that have dominated the news here.
But that may be less the case in California. In fact, The Los Angeles Times reported on its front page Sunday that four more women had come forward to say Mr. Schwarzenegger had fondled, spanked or touched them without their consent — bringing the number, by the newspaper's count, to 15.
Both Democrats and Republicans said they saw little reason to expect such reports to cease if Mr. Schwarzenegger becomes governor.
"This isn't going to go away," Mr. Black, the Republican consultant, said. "There are probably going to be a lot more cases."
Mr. Schwarzenegger has denied some of the reports, though he has broadly acknowledged that some of the charges are correct.
From the start of the election, there has been much debate in the White House about how, or if, a Schwarzenegger victory would affect a presidential race, and what if anything the White House should try to do about it.
Mr. Bush's advisers decided to try to keep a tactical public distance from the race, if only to try to make it more difficult for Mr. Davis to portray the challenge as a White House-orchestrated grab for power.
One of Mr. Bush's senior advisers said on Sunday that he remained convinced that a victory or loss by Mr. Schwarzenegger would make little difference for Mr. Bush in his re-election campaign next year, and that it would not even affect what chances, if any, Mr. Bush would have competing in California.
"I don't think he would help, and I don't think he would hurt," the adviser said.
Rich Galen, a Republican consultant, said that Mr. Bush's reputation for probity meant he would be able to avoid getting hurt by any association with a Governor Schwarzenegger, even if the womanizing disclosures that have shadowed Mr. Schwarzenegger during the campaign follow him to Sacramento.
"I don't think this is an issue that affects a person like George W. Bush the way it might someone like Bill Clinton," Mr. Galen said.
But a number of Republicans said that a year from now, should Mr. Schwarzenegger win, the White House might find itself wishing that it still had Mr. Davis in office.
"It's a mixed bag because he faces these enormous problems as governor and has a Democratic legislature to deal with," Mr. Weber said. "If he deals with it successfully, that's great for us. If he doesn't deal with it successfully, the problems in a very short order become our problems." |
