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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 278.28

+0.1%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Linda Kaplan who wrote (10969)	4/8/1998 8:41:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) of 213176

IOW tripling my LEAP position yesterday was a good idea but premature, because I will be able buy them cheaper today? Yesterday at $25 was a local buying opportunity according to my TA system. After 9 or 10 trading days of extreme weakness in the trend it signals a turning point towards the upside. This is just when the moving averages are diving faster. This is good news. PS Can you explain to me what exactly you did with these options? What is it that caused you to re-evaluate the fair value, exactly? As I said in my previous message the analysts are gradually raising their forecasts for 98 and 99. Based on their new forecasts and the CAPM model one would be prepared to pay $35 now instead of $30. Now if the people on this thread are right earnings for Q2 will be even better than that and then according to the model fair value is even higher. Anyone saying AAPL is overvalued on current forecasts seems to be wrong. This is also good news. I'm a bit less worried about AAPL now. These two paragraphs show how my economic approach works. In the long-run I'm looking at the fundamental value, however in the short-run deviations from that can be explained by pure time series analysis- the deviations are definitely not random unlike what the efficient market hypothesis people think. David

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