I don't see much seasonal effect on AOL subscriber growth. Comparing
FY97 Q1 and FY98 Q1, new subscribers doubled. Comparing this quarter
to previous year (FY97 Q4), the number of new subscribers is about
the same. But in FY97 Q4, AOL was still recovering from the flat-rate-
pricing fiasco. So the same number of new subscribers indicates a
slow-down.
FY Marketing Sub. Growth Acq. Cost
------- --------- ----------- -----------
97 Q1 $150M 414,000 $362 <--pre flat fee
97 Q2 $151M 1,200,000 $125 <--flat fee, holiday season
97 Q3 $93M 236,000 $393 <--state mandated halt of marketing
97 Q4 $100M 600,000 $166 <--summer
98 Q1 $98M 821,000 $119
98 Q2 $97M 1,267,000 $76 <--holiday season
98 Q3 $84M 1,148,000 $73 <--post Christmas
98 Q4 $95M 665,000 $143 <--summer
You may choose not to see the seasonal effect, but it shows right
there in the data you posted. I guess it's simply a perspective thing. |
