Bukun,
Manufacturing was certainly important -- but as a percentage of GDP, it peaked at around 30% in the early '50s. Now it's under 20%. I think the chances of tech hitting 30%, much less 50%, is slim.
My point in re: industry woes is that the likely carnage makes my work as putholder easier. No matter how successfully Dell competes, I can't see a probable scenario that makes the company worth $100 billion today.
I'll have to tighten my analysis should the market cap drop very significantly, or should marginal information indicate that my thesis for the industry is incorrect. COMS "beating" lowered estimates by a penny confirms.
I have profitable puts on IBM, too, purchased under the same thesis. I wish I'd targeted CPQ, but I set myself strict limits for options, and can only diversify so far.
Speaking of diversification, the received wisdom is that companies' managements should focus on one business. Gigabuys is a small stretch. Should Dell overreach, say to contract manufacturing, I would consider that an unnecessary distraction and major error.
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