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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 318.06+1.4%Jan 5 4:00 PM EST
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To: Kirk © who wrote (11170)8/23/2003 5:19:14 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom   of 95675
 
Yes, over the short term(the last 2 weeks) I made a big mistake. That happens - it isn't the first time for me and I know it won't be the last.

I do really believe we are going up on a new bubble. I have already agreed to this in several posts, one of the most recent was in the post to Sarmad about the NASDAQ going to the 2000 range in 3 to 4 months - and I suggested it could even be sooner.

We will have some "ripples" going up the front side of the bubble.

<IF you REALLY believe this, then isn't it (lack of a better word but not meaning to insult) "foolish" to not be fully invested like Cary or at least have a partial position as I and the AIM folks do?>

If you are only interested in the long term like Cary, IMO now is the time to be fully invested. If you are trying to play the "ripples" on the front side, then you go in and out of the market - sometimes you make the right choice and at other times the wrong choice. Who makes out better in the end? - the ones who try to "play" the "ripples" or those that don't. When the peak is reached and we start down the other side of the bubble, each individual who played the "ripples" can add it up and see whether he/she won or lost compared to the long term buy and hold. Of course whether you are a "ripple" player or a long term buy and hold person, each type of investor must find the top. Going down the other side of the bubble(unless you are short) is no fun.

Don
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