In postwar deck, KLA remains the wildest of wild cards
Fractious KLA threatens bid for tranquility in Kosovo
By Paul Salopek
Tribune Foreign Correspondent
June 5, 1999
ROME--The scenario is lifted
out of a NATO commander's
worst nightmare: Having
successfully bombed Yugoslav
dictator Slobodan Milosevic into
submission, alliance forces
march triumphantly into Kosovo
at the head of columns of dazed
refugees, only to see NATO's
first military victory sink into a bloody quagmire of
civil unrest, vendettas between rival Kosovar
factions, perhaps even civil war.
The ethnic Albanian rebels, embittered by a peace
plan that yanks away their demand for
independence from Yugoslavia, angrily refuse to
disarm. Thousands of their fighters take to the hills,
defiantly carving out zones of rebel control.
As the NATO occupation of Kosovo grinds on
with no stable political resolution in sight, the initial
public goodwill toward the foreign troops begins to
sour, a mounting hostility fueled by the guerrillas'
nationalist propaganda. Sensing NATO's
weakening resolve, the rebels--hardly united even
when fighting the Yugoslav army--begin squabbling
over control of the embattled province.
The killing mounts. NATO hunkers in its barracks.
And, sitting comfortably on the sidelines, Milosevic,
the erstwhile loser, smiles and gloats.
As bleak, pessimistic, perhaps even outlandish as
this forecast may seem, Western military experts
say it illustrates just how difficult the road to a
lasting peace remains in war-torn
Kosovo--especially without the complete
cooperation of the conflict's enigmatic wild card,
the separatist Kosovo Liberation Army.
The secretive rebel army, said to number anywhere
from 5,000 to 20,000 active fighters, is believed by
many to hold the key to peace now that Belgrade
has capitulated to NATO's demands for a complete
withdrawal of Yugoslav troops from the battered
province.
"Could they sabotage the peace if the international
community doesn't somehow grant their wish for full
independence from Yugoslavia? Yes, I think they're
radical enough that that's a real possibility," said
Daut Dauti, a Kosovar political analyst living in exile
in London. "The exact way they would go about
this, though, I don't think anybody can say."
Probably not even the KLA. Which is precisely
where the danger lies, Balkans experts say.
One of the world's most fractious liberation
movements, the KLA is a fighting force under
wobbly political control--a volatility that reflects the
deep fissures and competing political interests that
divide Kosovar society, say experts familiar with
the murky inner workings of the rebel army.
Originally formed by cadres from a fervent Marxist
party called the Kosovo Popular League--with
more than a few thugs and shady opportunists
thrown in for good measure--the guerrilla force has
since grown to absorb supporters from the rival
Kosovo Democratic League, the mainstream ethnic
Albanian party of pacifist leader Ibrahim Rugova.
Tensions between the vying factions are palpable
within KLA ranks.
Patriotic Albanians from as far away as Detroit and
London have been transported, indoctrinated and
equipped along separate recruitment channels run
by the two parties. Only when the young rebel
recruits have stepped onto the front line, armed
with just a few weeks of training and an AK-47,
have they begun fighting under the unified command
of an ethnic Albanian general from Croatia named
Agim Ceku.
"It's this sort of internal jockeying and bickering that
spells trouble for any peace deal," said Dauti. "Even
if the political leaders of the KLA agree to abide by
it, there is still another divide--between the
politicians and the field commanders. I think the
fighters will never give up their guns."
Disarming the KLA is just one of the dicey
elements of any peace deal to be enforced by
NATO troops in Kosovo; the rebels are bitterly
opposed to any Russian peacekeeping role outside
the NATO command.
The biggest flash point, however, remains the key
issue of independence. The failed Rambouillet
peace pact grudgingly signed by the KLA in
February at least held out the carrot of a
referendum on independence after three years of
interim Yugoslav rule. The new agreement contains
no such concession.
"We think it's too early to comment on that. Peace
hasn't come yet, and we're still concentrating on
fighting Milosevic," Ilir Rama, a spokesman for
KLA political leader Hashim Thaci, said in a phone
interview Thursday from Tirana, Albania. "At this
stage, we have made clear we will cooperate with
NATO in re-establishing peace and democracy in
Kosovo."
Thaci, the self-declared prime minister of Kosovo
who, naturally, is not recognized by Rugova's
faction, made similarly restrained comments
Thursday about the pending peace deal with
Yugoslavia.
So as divided as the rebel forces may be, they
apparently realize that direct threats to scuttle a
peace deal make no sense while NATO bombs are
still falling on their Yugoslav enemies.
"Their time will come once Milosevic's troops are
out," said Dauti. "They are going to move in, and
they are going to have to be dealt with. I'd really
like to see how NATO is going to disarm them."
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