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when I look at the chart of NHNL, I see something which could portend bearishness. If you look at the AUC (area under the curve), of the new high chart, what you see are growing "waves" (larger and larger AUC) until 3/98; that was the bull market. Then, a minima occurred around 8/98, and the new low AUC had a corresponding maxima; the initiation of the bear market. Since then, the "waves" of new highs have been fairly subdued relative to the earlier bull market, as evidenced by the greatly subdued AUC, and simultaneously, the AUC of the new low waves has been increasing, in both size and frequency. So that, the "waves" of new lows had maximas at 12/98, 2/99, and 3/99 (approximately speaking). In other words, the bearish sentiment is building up momentum with each wave, from the initial bear pulse which occurred at the 8/98 reversal. |
