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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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From: LindyBill	5/6/2005 10:56:08 PM
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"“Cascading Effects” – al-Lbbi’s Notebook Austin Bay Commanders and planners – at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels– always look for the chance to so shatter or demoralize an enemy that his forces lose cohesion. When one particular action succeeds in achieving this goal it’s said to have created “cascading effects.” Think of an avalanche. An avalanche is a pure “cascading effect” –it starts with a single snowball or pebble, but as the snowball roll and gains momentum, s suddenly an entire mountainside is at risk. Here’s an off-the-top-of-my-head example of a “cascading effect” at the tactical level. A battalion is pinned down by dug-in enemy infantry. A squad attacks an enemy pillbox and destroys it. A platoon moves through the now undefended zone (which the pillbox covered) and gets behind the dug-in enemy. The platoon starts attacking enemy defenses from the rear and suddenly the entire enemy position is compromised. The enemy infantry has to retreat. Knocking out the key pillbox produced tactical “cascading effects.” At the strategic level, pro-democracy demonstrations in Beirut are arguably a “cascading effect” of the democratic elections in Iraq. Which leads to Al Qaeda’s “operations chief,” Abu Faraj al-Libbi. ABC News reported today that US intel got ahold of al-Libbi’s own little black book. (The link is via AT&T and may not be permanent.) Here’s the lede: U.S. officials are working feverishly to decipher numbers and apparent codes in a notebook retrieved from suspected al Qaeda leader Abu Faraj al-Libbi, ABC News has learned. Al-Libbi – believed to be third in command of al Qaeda leader after Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri – was arrested by Pakistani authorities on Monday. He is suspected of leading two failed assassination attempts on the life of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. Sources said officials believe al-Libbi’s seized notebook contains “hot” contact information. They said officials are hopeful the notebook contains useful information because al-Libbi was stunned when he was captured. One senior official described al-Libbi as “shocked” and enraged. Correctly interpreting and then acting on the information in al-Libbi’s address book could create “cascading effects” throughout Al Qaeda. Fighting a terror network is very different than the conventional war “pillbox” scenario I just discussed, but “cracking” al-Libbi’s black book amounts to cracking a terrorists’ first line of defense– the ability to hide. The ABC report also says: “He thought he was invincible,” the source said. “He was caught with his pants down. This was not the time and place of his choosing.” Al-Libbi was trying to destroy the notebook when he was apprehended, multiple sources said. Al Qaeda’s leaders exhibit the criminal arrogance of John Gotti, the mob boss that thought he’d never go down. But down he went. THe Pakistanis ought to put him on tv. Show the invincible man in a jail cell. Let him radiate arrogance behind a set of cold steel bars." austinbay.net

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