greenlaw4-7: I disagree with an important part of the rosy scenario you've just outlined. I do not think that "earnings will not be as bad as expected", I think they will be much worse. Remember, last quarter most companies actually MADE their projected earnings but sold off because of negative forward guidance. Well, guess what quarter will show you just how accurate their gloomy outlook and forward guidance was? The earnings reported in April will (IMHO) be abysmal. Fortunately, much of this is already built into the depressed stock prices. However, many stocks that still have PE's of 100 or greater (SEBL, GMST, BRCD, JNPR) still have room to sell of further. More importantly, I do not see the NASDAQ rising sharply in the face of poor earnings reports.
The light at the end of the tunnel is that this should bring us at or near the bottom for the NASDAQ. Although the earnings reports in July will be little better, the Fed rate cuts and increased money supply (liquidity) should begin working their way into the market and companies may then start giving more positive forward guidance.
Any tech bounce over the next week or two will be purely technical; the NASDAQ needs several months of bouncing off of the bottom in a trading range (?1800-2300) before it regains its footing. It is a bounce I am not playing. |
