Re: Willy Willy Willy... This is the real cloud hanging over our little AMD.
Another issue -
AMD's biggest problem for quite some time has been the perception that Intel was a far more reliable supplier. At one time, that was an accurate perception. The result was that Intel could demand a premium from its customers, and its design wins were automatic. AMD wasn't even represented in the corporate market - it wasn't offered the opportunity to compete.
In the last year, Intel has disappointed and damaged its OEM customers. AMD is not yet considered completely reliable, but now neither is Intel.
AMD has now won the opportunity to compete in markets that previously were completely closed to it. AMD is now being supported by infrastructure suppliers that had always shunned it before (Abit pushing an AMD only motherboard - impossible!).
AMD is getting industry wide support for its DDR solution for desktops and small servers, while Intel infuriates the industry by continuing to insist upon Rambus.
AMD now has two independent processes (Aluminum .18 and Copper .18/.15) in production that are both competitive - they can tolerate a problem in either without facing a disaster. Intel's "copy exactly" system has resulted in a larger company with many more FABs relying upon a single process (Aluminum .18) - a single point of failure.
I think that AMD, if it were to need to, could do what Intel has been doing for the last 8 months - making money while being 100-200MHZ behind in the sweet spot of its shipping processors. Sure Intel would have made more money had they been able to keep up with AMD - but despite the current problems, Intel is still making plenty of money.
There are a lot of companies that will consider is necessary to maintain an alternative to Intel only as a CPU source - especially since Intel appears determined to make Willamette run only with Intel chipsets on Intel motherboards. Given that Intel has been an unreliable source for CPUs, chipsets, and motherboards recently, who would want to bet his company on them?
Previously, if Intel got the CPU right, VIA, or ALi or Sis, could bail them out on the chipset. Now going with Intel means accepting multiple single points of failure. And the time necessary to ramp up on a completely new platform has recently been demonstrated to be a number of very painful months.
AMD will be OK.
Dan |
