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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Investor2 who wrote (11319)12/23/2000 2:51:10 PM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
Re: "W5000 Fund (3/24/00) -18.24%"

It looks like the US market as a whole is less than 2% from an "official" bear market. Assuming, of course that one uses the 20% drop definition of bear market.


Yes, indeed.

I noticed this past week that IBD considers the 20% drop in 1998 as a bear market. Brinker does not as it would make his model wrong so he holds to intraday and no rounding allowed! -chuckle. I actually agree with Brinker that '98 was not a bear as it didn't last long enough at the low levels.

Myself, I tend to think a bear market needs to have some duration but it is mostly word games. 1987 was a bear market for me on some definitions as the market dropped 30% and took many years to make new highs. 99% of my tech holdings in 1987 (HWP and IBM stock) dropped 50% or so and took 4 years to recover. If you were buy n hold on an index fund, then you just saw a steady gain each year and it looked more like a bull market unless you bought in with a lump sum right at the peak of 1987. The same may come true for the NASDAQ.
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