Mariusz,
You have a very good view on how Apple should do - give up hardware,
and stick only to software. However, the approach cannot work
because most of Apple's revenue is generated from hardware sales and
it still enjoy 90% of whole MAC sales in 96. Apple executives try to
gradually turning from hardware to more software after it acquired
Next. It seems they played try-and-error last entire year until
bad Performa sales and manufacture inefficiency waked them up.
There is no doubt that Next can provide excellent software
capabilities, and Apple chose the right kernel recently. Meanwhile,
AIM pushed the PowerPC to higher mghz, and they learned a lesson from
last quarter, I believe Apple will trun around within not long
distance away. Dataquest analyst predicted Apple will increase sales
by 60% in first half of 97 (see post 1118), which I tend to believe.
Apple hardware sales could decrease to 70-75% of the total MAC sales
after a couple of years, but by that time Apple would have more income
from software sales. Therefore, I predict Apple would enjoy nice
comeback in 98, annual sales volumes could reach 10+ billions again.
Please take a look at recent European Apple's sales 50% increasing and
Japanese sales remain intact about 822,000 units in 96. Apple already
took a loss last quarter - which will transfer to more inventory this
quarter. If the products in inventory could be sold this quarter,
then it would convert to profit due to the leftover from last quarter.
The current Apple stock makes you panic, but this is a natural trend.
If you recall Segeat, Western Digital in early 90s, or Digital in
92, IBM in 94, all rebounced nicely. Give Apple a chance since
Apple's comeback would benefit to the pc industries as a whole and
Apple really has its own strength in technology. Give Apple
executives a chance since they strided to suceed, not survive. It is
not surprising if Apple has profit next quarter because I still
believe Dataquest analyst's prediction. |
