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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup
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To: Softechie who wrote (11483)3/12/2001 6:37:34 PM
From: Softechie   of 37746
 
Retail sales for Feb. out tomorrow before open. It could be a catalyst for old econ stocks to do well. Here's explanation from Briefing.com:

Highlights

Briefing.com Forecast: 0.3%, 0.2% ex-autos
Market Consensus: 0.4%, 0.2% ex-autos

Key Factors

Autos to provide a third month of moderate gain as non-autos edge higher after strong Jan jump.
Nonauto durables (furniture, building equipment) expected to be about flat after strong January rise
Nondurable goods buying expected to be weak as consumer staples (food, drugs) leave a modest rise.
Merchandise sales expected to edge lower as slightly higher gasoline prices mildly boost service station sales.

Big Picture

Autos, with a quarter of the retail weighting, are the swing factor in the monthly figures. The sharp weakening in the fourth quarter gave way to a rebound in early 2001 which sets the quarter off well. The pace in following months will determine if it was a fluke or evidence of some stabilization. Consumer spending is one of the keystones of the rapid economic growth which the Fed has halted with policy tightening. The Fed tightening has been overly successful in killing the sales momentum as the aggressive ease is expected to revive it with a lag. One month doesn't make a trend but the broad-base of January's gain provides some encouragement that the consumer is far from dead.
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