Pete,
Your 2001 numbers ar on the high side. The growth in Athlon sales we are seeing in 2000 comes from 2 sources: additional Dresden capacity and conversion of Austin to .18u and Athlon. By Q1 2001, I think Austin conversion will be finished, and there will be no additional growth in Athlon sales from there. If Austin makes all Duron at .18u and nothing else, it could make 10M Durons, but to be realistic, since other products are made there, let's not count on more than 6 to 7 million. I don't know know about conversion plans to .13u, but I think AMD will stay with .18u AL and Duron as long as possible, to avoid unnecessary capital expenditures.
In Dresden, when fully equipped in Q4 2001, AMD could make 10M Thunderbirds using .18u process, slightly more after .15u and .13u shrinks. So my optimistic scenario for 2001 is Q1: 11, Q2: 13, Q3: 15, Q4: 17 million units, for total of 56 million units, slightly above AMD estimate of 50 million units.
Still, 50 million units at ASP between $100 and $150 comes to annual revenue between $5 billion and $7.5 billion just from the microprocessor sales.
Joe |
