UK housing market drops pace but risk of fresh spurt in 2005 remains - CML
Thursday, September 9, 2004 12:39:05 PM
LONDON (AFX) - The UK housing market has dropped to a lower gear but it is still too early to tell if buyers will slam on the brakes that will mark the start of a 'protracted slowdown', the Council of Mortgage Lenders said
It cautioned that the market may throw up further surprises and stage a renewed pick-up early next year
Interest rates in the UK are believed to be very close to their peak, and a level of around 5.00 pct will still be very low by historical standards. This, combined with the strength of the overall economy could lead to renewed demand for property. "We know for example, that there are many potential first-time buyers who over the last few years have put off buying a house. In light of more favourable conditions, these buyers may return to the market," CML said
But there can be no denying that previously tentative signs of a moderation have evolved into clear evidence of a reduction in house price inflation, CML said, citing the weakness in the two main gauges of property prices from HBOS unit, Halifax and Nationwide Building Society. The slowdown comes after the Bank of England raised interest rates five times since November last year, taking the benchmark repo rate to 4.75 pct
Last week, the Halifax monthly house price index found that house prices fell by 0.6 pct in August from the previous month for an annual rise of 21.3 pct, backing up Nationwide's equivalent which rose just 0.1 pct from July - the smallest gain since November 2000 - for an annual increase of 18.9 pct. Both Halifax and Nationwide say they expect a soft landing for property prices
CML highlighted that the annual rates of growth have only eased slightly and that markets may be predicting an end to the boom years a little prematurely. As a housing market slowdown had been expected for some time now, watchers risk reading too much into the latest raft of data
"Monthly data can be volatile and this could lead to the data being incorrectly interpreted, or the magnitude of any actual slowdown being exaggerated," CML said
"We would urge a note of caution. Not only is it too early to call, but even with continued signs of a cooling in the housing market, there is still the possibility of a renewed surge early next year," it added
Additionally, the latest lending figures from the Bank of England revealed a levelling off in demand for mortgages and a drop in the level of mortgages approved but not yet taken out
"While the July data shows a dip in gross mortgage advances, we would need to see a contraction in lending over several consecutive months before concluding the market had reached a turning point," CML said. The number of loans approved for house purchases fell from 112,000 to 97,000 in July, a fall of 13 pct over the month after a 10 pct decline in June. "We expect this to translate through to a fall in transactions, which currently remain very strong," CML said. There are indications suggesting that approval levels will stay low and even fall further. Approvals are a leading indicator of future lending and hint at "significantly weaker" mortgage lending in September and October, CML said
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