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Technology Stocks : Zitel-ZITL What's Happening
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To: jas singh MD who wrote (11541)10/10/1997 3:54:00 PM
From: CalculatedRisk   of 18263
 
Jas, thanks. I think State & Federal governments represent the best opportunity for Z/MD. They are definitely behind private enterprise (over 50% compliant according to InformationWeek).

Comments on Y2K in general (not Z/MD): One of my key arguments is that most companies and government agencies are targeting completion of Y2K conversion by the end of 1998. Quoting the story you linked: "... find and fix Year 2000 problems by Dec. 31, 1998". This is the same time frame as the quotes I have posted from several companies. (Of course, some companies will procrastinate!) This means that the peak in Y2K revenue will be next year.

On several other Y2K threads, I have cautioned against shorting the stock too early. The market discounts the future, but most people are not looking very far ahead. Revenues are increasing dramatically and investors are extrapolating these revenues into 1999 and beyond. My current forecast is that Y2K revenues will start to decline in 1999.

This is important for Y2K longs - even if you disagree with my timing estimates. You need to anticipate the peak in revenues and start selling your position prior to the inevitable decline in the share price. For Y2K shorts - keep your powder dry.

BTW, I live in CA. When I first started following Y2K, someone posted (not you!) that CA couldn't issue drivers licenses beyond 1999. I opened by wallet and what do you know? My license expires on my birthday in 2000!
Regards, Bill
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