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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: James Calladine who started this subject9/16/2003 12:05:44 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) of 95574
 
From Briefing.com: 11:30 ET Dow +43, Nasdaq +19, S&P +6.07: [BRIEFING.COM] Range-bound action in the last hour, with the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq vacillating in a range of 8, 2, and 3 points, respectively... The good news is that the major averages are trekking near their session highs... The small- and mid-cap indices, for their parts, are also vacillating near their best levels of the day and are firmly implanted in positive territory... Leadership to the upside continues to be sourced from prominent sectors, such as brokerage and tech, particularly the semiconductor group... The latter had been at the forefront of the advance off of March's lows, but has stalled in the last week due to valuation concerns... Today, the sector is higher, in part, due to a Merrill Lynch upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight... The sector is largely ignoring a cautious Banc of America note saying that given current prices for semi stocks, extrapolating forward 1990's industry growth rates, earnings power, and profitability is a mistake... S&P Midcap 400 +0.58%... Russell 2000 +0.80%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1987/1004... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1932/977.

10:37AM Nasdaq Composite edges to new session high (COMPX) 1865: -- Technical -- Index has recently established a new session high with top of the Sep 10 gap and congestion in the 1867/1870 area tested. Next resistance in the 1878/1880 area in front of the Sep/recovery high at 1888. Intraday supports are at 1862, 1856 and the 1852/1850 area.

9:58AM Qualcomm: ThinkEquity comments on guidance (QCOM) 43.24 -0.21: -- Update -- While chipset unit sales are slightly lower than firm's estimates, ThinkEquity believes that the overall picture with higher ASPs will benefit QCOM in the long term. Nokia's inroads at the low end, while impacting unit shipments, are having a beneficial impact on profitability in the near term. Firm continues to believe that QCOM will benefit from the entry into the GSM/GPRS market for the first time in 2004, and that this will help alleviate unit concerns from competition at the low end in CDMA.

9:10AM Semi industry growth is slowing - BofA : Banc of America says the TSM's CEO Morris Chang spoke at a conference about how "mega trends" are leading to slower growth for the semi industry; Chang attributed the slowing growth to the saturation of semi content and increasing economic hurdles facing Moore's law; Chang also thinks that China is over-investing in capital equipment and creating a bubble that will cause an industry downturn in 2005-06. Given current prices for semi stocks, firm says that extrapolating forward 1990's industry growth rates, earnings power, and profitability is a mistake.

8:50AM MIPS Techs downgraded at B. Riley (MIPS) 5.22: B. Riley downgrades to Neutral from Buy based on valuation, as the stock is trading at 28x their FY05 EPS est and the recent rally has pushed the shares well above their $4.75 target.

8:15AM Simple Tech started with an Outperform at Thomas Weisel; target $8 (STEC) 5.91: Thomas Weisel initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $8 target; firm believes that the co is well-positioned to benefit from the secular shift to flash memory, and the co's potential exposure to the DRAM mkt should provide for upside should prices continue to rise or if the PC replacement cycle gains traction, with limited risk should DRAM remain depressed; firm also sees potential upside for Xiran and telecom.

7:47AM Standard Micro beats by $0.03, guides NovQ higher (SMSC) 22.04: Reports Q2 (Aug) earnings of $0.08 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 26% year/year to $48.3 mln vs the $44.3 mln consensus. Company sees Q3 (Nov) EPS to be "up slightly" from the $0.08 earned this quarter vs Reuters Research consensus of $0.07 on revs of $50 mln vs R.R. consensus of $47.0 mln. Note: these revenue and EPS estimates exclude a special $20 mln payment from Intel in NovQ.

7:35AM Qualcomm sees Q4 at high end of range; comments on CDMA units (QCOM) 43.45: Based on the current business outlook, co sees Q4 and full yr EPS and revs at the high end of prior guidance (issued July 23rd) when company called for EPS of $0.27-0.29, Reuters consensus is $0.29 and Y03 EPS of $1.40-1.42 vs consensus of $1.42. Co also states that royalty reports from its licensees, received in this September quarter for CDMA products sold in the quarter ended June 30, indicate sales of approx. 23 million new CDMA subscriber units "compared to our estimate of 25 million units for that quarter."

7:24AM Micron upgraded at First Albany (MU) 13.22: First Albany upgrades to Strong Buy from Buy based on their belief that ests for the co are too low and that MU's manufacturing costs are coming in lower than the Street expects this qtr; firm also cites the expected seasonal surge in DRAM prices. Target is $22.50.
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