CMM
from Production05 on SH:
Thanks for the update nu2au. I have a call in to Peter.
I would like to see the company issue an NR to give the market a general timeframe as to when they except the Bedard Dyke to be up and running and what type of tpd ramp up levels are expected in both November and December. I recognize this is not the approach of new management, but this is just my preference.
My guess is that the 1,000 tpd was likely a bit heavy on mineralized development material as both Lamaque 2 and Bedard Dyke were in heavy development at the time. I`m not sure what the make up is like right now, between Lamaque 2 reserve stope ore, Lamaque 2 non-reserve stope ore and mineralized development material.
Longer term, I was hoping to they would be able to do 700 tpd from each decline or maybe each zone (Lamaque 2, BD, NW). The 400 - 600 tpd from Lamaque 2 might be reasonable for long term mine planning (assuming they can maintain that rate), but only if they can eventually get to 2,000 tpd with inclusion of BD and NW (with BD and NW making up the entire difference).
My focused has always been on December 2010. Originally, back in August when they published 1,000 tpd for Lamaque 2, I was hoping to see 1,400 tpd in December with inclusion of BD. However, over the past few weeks I figured that the Lamaque 2 tpd was flucuating from month to month. I figured there would be less mineralized development material. As such, I lowered my expectations to 1,100 tpd in November and 1,200 tpd in December - Lamaque 2 plus BD. If they are doing 400 - 600 tpd from Lamaque 2 and are expecting 400 - 600 tpd from BD, that could bring us up to the 800 - 1,200 tpd range (Lamque 2 + BD). This range would likely still be somewhat reasonable, but I think 1,000 tpd for December 2010 is likely more reasonable than 1,200 tpd (mid point of the range), in my opinion. I was using a grade of 4.0 g/t for November and 4.2 g/t for December. If they can exceed those overall grades with BD loaded in then it might make up a bit of the shortfall in tpd, relative to my expectations. In addition, as mentioned on the blog, November results is entirely dependent on when they actually bring BD online, combined with how rapid they can ramp it up, as well as how successful they are in raising the grade beyond the 3.5 - 4.0 g/t range. This is partly why I am more focused on December numbers (it allows a month of BD production to get things aligned).
If they can bring the North Wall on at the 400 - 600 tpd level then the overall tpd range would be 1,200 - 1,600 tpd with Lamaque 2, BD and NW all in production. That is probably a reasonable range relative to my expectations, especially if they hit closer to the higher end of 1,600 tpd.
I can only speak for myself. In my mind, the Lamaque start up story has always been mainly about bringing Bedard Dyke and North Wall online, with lower cost long-hole stope (bulkier type of) mining. The success of the start up is still heavily dependent on these 2 phases. This is why I would like to see the company to begin providing details (about the start up) to the market about these upcoming events.
stockhouse.com
CRACKER |
