"Zarqawi As Myth, Ghost, and Damaged Goods
Austin Bay Blog
So yesterday’s rumor –that Abu Musab al -Zarqawi had been wounded– moves up a notch on the reliability scale. The Iraqi government (Interior and Defense Ministries) says it believes that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been wounded, though the extent of his wounds are unknown. Fox TV just reported that Zarqawi may be in a hospital in a neighboring country. That rates as a rumor.
Zarqawi is a master-terrorist, at the tactical level. He’s cunning. He can attract fanatics and turn fanatic desire into front-page mass murder. Strategically, however, he’s in the process of engineering his own movement’s defeat. His “bloodbath tactics” have backfired in Iraq and –according to several analysts– are in the process of turning Arab public opinion against Al Qaeda. He’s brought Islamist terror to the center of the Arab world, and Islamist terror kills Arabs and Muslims without mercy. As for operational success? That’s a tougher call. He’s failed to ignite any kind of mass uprising against the Iraqi government. Instead of baiting Shias and Kurds into a civil war he’s hardened their political resolve– a Kurd is now Iraq’s president. He has played a key role in sustaining Iraq’s Sunni holdouts– in part terrorizing Sunnis who might consider a deal with the Iraqi government. That’s a “negative” kind of success (ie, he’s not inspiring, he’s enforcing).
Has Zarqawi been wounded or is he dead? Or is he being “withdrawn from the combat zone?” I raise these questions because at this point in time Zarqawi may be more valuable to Al Qaeda as a “mythic warrior” or “ghost.” It’s tough to kill a myth and darned hard to kill a ghost. Here’s the argument: Zarqawi’s damaged goods, physically and politically. From Al Qaeda’s point of view, and possibly Saddam’s henchmen, it’s time to get Z-Man out of Iraq, and then have Al-Jazeera and Newsweek turn him into Robin Hood.
From the AP (via AT&T’s website, so the link may not be permanent):
Iraq’s interior and defense ministers said Thursday that they have information that Jordanian-born terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been wounded.
“We have information in the Ministry of Interior that al-Zarqawi was wounded, but we don’t know how seriously,” Interior Minister Bayan Jabr said during a news conference. “We are not sure whether he is dead or not but we are sure that he is injured.”
An Internet statement claimed Tuesday that al-Zarqawi had been wounded in recent fighting. The statement, posted on a Web site known for carrying extremist material, could not be immediately authenticated.
“Yes, it is true,” said Iraqi Defense Minister Saadoun al-Duleimi when asked if al-Zarqawi had been wounded. Asked how he knew, he said: “It is my job.”
The speculation over al-Zarqawi’s health deepened Wednesday after reports that two Arab doctors in another country were treating Iraq’s most wanted militant, who has claimed responsibility for the country’s deadliest attacks.
Here’s a trackback to my post of May 25th for background.
UPDATE: From StrategyPage’s FYEO daily email. StrategyPage thinks Al Qaeda is preparing the faithful for Zarqawi’s death:
May 25, 2005; While thousands of Iraqi police and troops round up hundreds of terrorist suspects in Baghdad, American troops have begun another sweep west of Baghdad, where al Qaeda has established bases since they were driven out of Fallujah late last year.
Al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi was wounded in action about a month ago, shot in the chest, and hastily treated. The wound didn’t heal, and al Zarqawi has been taken to a foreign country for treatment. Now al Qaeda members are being told that al Zarqawi had been wounded and should be prayed for. A web site announcement appears to be an attempt to prepare al Qaeda supporters for al Zarqawi’s death. Because al Qaeda has invested so much in building up al Zarqawi’s image and stature, his demise would be a major blow to the terrorist cause. Just admitting, on a known al Qaeda web site, that al Zarqawi was wounded, is bad PR. Al Qaeda lives and dies by its public image. In the last few months, that image has been taking a major beating throughout the Arab world.
The political scenario I’m suggesting goes a step beyond the “bad PR” StrategyPage notes – Al Qaeda has to try to make lemonade out of Z-Man’s putrid, decayed lemons. We’ll stay tuned."
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