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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: The Ox who wrote (11663)9/18/2003 10:57:08 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (2) of 95574
 
Hi Mike,

I believe you have made the most important market observation that can be made.

As many search for the "Holy Graile" that makes all investment decisions correct and justifiable.

The astute trader can simply observe reality.

This sector is cyclical and yes the pendulum swings too far in both directions.Thus at times each and every valuation discipline is right and /or wrong.

For this very reason I've learned to love and embrace the sector's excessive cyclicality.

It provides tremendous opportunities.

So on the night of a weak Book to Bill - Nvls showed positive strength on the plus side around 2:00 this P.M..

With all indices breaking out to new highs and the SCE sector all but shaking off the weak BtB,do we now think some trough valuation matrix is how we should value these cash rich,high barrier to entry companies??

Nope ,I think the worm has turned and todays dip will be but a short opportunity to get some more of this yet to be at new high stock sector.

How many YEARS have we waited for the buyers of SCE to say the chip business is getting better - now they think a 20% growth next year will happen.Jump back to a year ago and that would be a "You're insane headline".GG

Your thinking is very clear - I believe you've nailed it !!!

Thanks.

Bob
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