Ramsey, wireline data to the home or small business is in fact going to hit some ceilings on capacity, but that may be largely besides the point. (At least on this thread, as opposed to a satellite company thread.)
Very few expect land based wireless to compete with wire and cable within the next five years, at the very least. But once you get hooked on 1mbps (+/- .5mbps) speeds when wired up, you will be unhappy indeed if your wireless laptop top speed is only 1/20 or 1/50 of that. 1/2 or 1/4 you may well live with.
Everyone has in mind cell phones and PalmPilot like devices delivering stock quotes, email, and yes, maybe even checking in on your favorite SI threads while en route to meetings, commuting, in boring meetings, etc.
I think it is quite true that the size of the market that will pay big for this stuff is very small. But the size of the market that will pay a little, and definitely prefer one service provider over another if it provides fast snappy data service of this type is very, very large.
Actually, I'm going to invent a new device. It will be the size and thickness of a current laptop 13'' screen only. Weighs less than a pound with batteries which are a series of thin jobbies which slide into the back and give 1.5 hours before recharge. (They're small and light.) No disks or CD roms. No keyboard, although like the Palm Pilot, it will be possible to pull up a touchscreen keyboard which takes up 1/3 of the bottom of the screen.
This thing is designed to be a wireless Network thin client computer, hooking up to the net via its CDMA3 interface. Little touchpad mouse device at the bottom. Also has Pilot type PDA programs in firmware. Otherwise, it connects to the net and your online office and/or home PC's.
That is the wireless data future. IMHO. (Also there is that smaller, and perhaps tag along, market for robust full Net connections by road warriors on their laptops. It will after all be quite some time before most hotels have good cable modem Net service, or ADSL through their creaky hotel phone switches.)
Doug |
