How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 491.12

+1.7%

Dec 8 3:59 PM EST

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To: ToySoldier who wrote (11747)	10/24/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) of 74651

Toy - Interesting perspective but you have one piece wrong - Intel. Now that Intel has HP sewn up through the merced joint development, look for Intel to make strong moves to line up IBM and Sun. This new axis will clearly be driving to a model which leans to the network computing paradigm (see Gerstner's remarks last week) and a renewed focus on 64 bit UNIX with Intel leading the charge. Intel is already putting its bets on back end services and the flip side of thin clients is fat servers. But there are lots of alternatives to a pure NC which hit the TCO issues without the inherent disadvantages of the full-up EJB and NC model. I expect to see MSFT and CPQ creating a 'WinPaq' alliance which uses CPQ's formidable enterprise technology and client list combined with their best in class service organization to create the alternative enterprise architecture. they will push it through their HUGE world-wide marketing ranks to make the Java / Network Computing solution a reality. IBM is clearly weak at the moment. They are carrying a huge burden with their legacy business - take out AS400 and mainframe business and you'll see what I mean. I don't see their ability to make any standards happen without at least CPQ and HP in the game, they no longer have the market clout to make things happen on their own. And Java by itself is a two-edged sword - most of the benefits apply to net PCs at least as well as NCs, so any growth of acceptance of Java floats all the boats. It will be an interesting competition over the next weeks, months and years - I expect to see a good deal of skirmishing almost immediately, with the real critical battles in '99 and '00. I don't think anyone can predict at this point how it will come out.

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