I would like to try something a little different on this thread. All thread readers are invited to participate and put forth their ideas. After all, I think the thread readers have a wealth of experience, competence and understanding of the market. I am hoping that by everyone participating with their ideas on how to select stocks that are going to appreciate considerably in the near future(1 to 3 months), we can all benefit and be better off financially than we could by working alone. After all, that's what these threads should be all about IMO, contributors put forth their insights to the Group so that in the end, we are all better off.
What got me thinking a lot about stock performance during the past few weeks has been the performance of NSM since its close at 20.76 on Wednesday, 7/30. Last Friday, it closed at 35.90 for a gain of 15.14 per share, or 73 percent. That gain was made in 7 and 1/2 weeks. Needless to say, the SOX has been really helped by this performance, and the individual investors who were in, or bought in on this day, are very happy - perhaps ecstatic? Speaking of the SOX, the table below shows the performance over the period from 7/30 to last Friday's close, 9/19.
- 7/30/03 9/19/03 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL
- CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM
SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG
AMD 7.28 12.68 74 -0.28 15
NSM 20.76 35.90 73 1.42 25 15 1.69
LSI 9.10 11.96 31 0.27 44 18 2.46
TER* 16.87 22.00 30 0.46 48 19 2.52
TXN 18.70 24.17 29 0.67 36 20 1.80
BRCM 20.71 26.42 28 0.65 41 30 1.35
XLNX 25.38 31.54 24 0.88 36 20 1.79
STM 21.39 26.22 23 0.80 33 18 1.82
TSM 9.48 11.58 22 0.49 24 25 0.95
MOT 9.10 11.09 22 0.39 28 12 2.47
INTC 24.49 29.17 19 1.04 28 15 1.87
MXIM 37.52 43.35 16 1.37 32 25 1.27
ALTR 18.75 21.46 14 0.48 45 25 1.79
NVLS* 34.74 38.55 11 0.68 57 21 2.66
AMAT* 18.48 20.48 11 0.46 45 20 2.19
KLAC* 51.23 56.67 11 1.86 30 21 1.45
LLTC 35.21 38.90 10 1.09 36 20 1.78
MU 14.35 14.53 1 -0.39 18
TOTALS 393.54 476.67 21 12.34
SOX-X 381.17 460.79 21
COMPQX1720.91 1905.70 11
Note that while all the stocks were up(even MU at 1 percent), NSM and AMD are the big winners - and for the moment and purposes of this discussion, let's forget about AMD - I think it falls in a "different" category of "winner" than I am trying to address.
As seen in the table, NSM presently has a PE of 25, "next year" earnings of 1.42, a long term growth rate of 15, and a PEG of 1.69. On 8/1, NSM had a closing price of 22.77, a PE of 21, "next year" earnings of 1.11, a long term growth rate of 15 and a PEG of 1.37. This can all be shown in a table as
- NSM
- FST CALL NEXT FST CALL
- NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM
DATE PRICE EARN PE GROWTH PEG
8/1/03 22.77 1.11 21 15 1.37
9/19/03 35.90 1.42 25 15 1.69
A good source of news as to what happened in the interval we are talking about can be obtained from CBS Marketwatch.com.
cbs.marketwatch.com
There is a lot of news listed there, but let me try to list a few of the news items starting with 7/30.
- 7:08pm 07/30/03 National Semi to buy back up to $400 mln. of stock - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 6:22am 07/31/03 National Semi. upped to 'buy' at Merrill Lynch - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 8:06am 07/31/03 UPDATE 1-Merrill turns more positive on chip stocks - Reuters U.S. Company News
- 8:57am 07/31/03 U.S. stocks set to open higher, lifted by GDP data - Reuters U.S. Company News
- 11:17am 07/31/03 National Semiconductor top gainer in $SOX, up 8.1% - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 8:42am 08/06/03 National Semi to sell information appliance unit to AMD - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 1:37pm 08/06/03 National Semiconductor top gainer in $SOX, up 4.2% - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 4:21pm 08/06/03 AMD buys National Semi's Geode line - Chris Kraeuter
- 1:35pm 08/11/03 National Semiconductor top gainer in $SOX, up 4.8% - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 6:04am 08/18/03 National Semiconductor debuts LM4906 audio amplifier - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 4:55pm 08/22/03 Hardware Stocks: Chip stocks rise due to Intel's strength - Chris Kraeuter
- 8:10am 08/27/03 National Semi upgraded by Lehman Bros. to equal weight - Julie Rannazzisi
- 1:07pm 08/27/03 National Semiconductor top gainer in $SOX, up 5.3% - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 12:02am 08/29/03 The Stockpickers: SSR manager likes InterActive, SLM and National Semi - Ted Griffith
- 8:36am 09/02/03 Natl. Semiconductor upped to 'outperform' at SoundView - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 11:05am 09/02/03 Merrill upgrades Nat'l Semi ahead of Q1 results - Tomi Kilgore
- 12:26pm 09/04/03 National Semi Q1 earns 15c, revenue $424.8 mln - Chris Kraeuter
- 12:27pm 09/04/03 National Semiconductor profit rises in first qtr - Reuters U.S. Company News
- 12:43pm 09/04/03 Chip sector gets a boost from Nat. Semi's Q1 results - Tomi Kilgore
- 4:46pm 09/04/03 National Semi's cost cuts drive up Q1 profit - Chris Kraeuter
- 5:05am 09/05/03 National Semi upped to buy at DKW - Emily Church
- 8:34am 09/05/03 National Semiconductor upped to 'buy' at UBS - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 10:50am 09/05/03 National Semiconductor top gainer in $SOX, up 8% - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 11:57am 09/05/03 RESEARCH ALERT-Soundview raises National Semi target - Reuters U.S. Company News
- 8:33am 09/09/03 National Semi buys back 7.5 mln shares - CBS MarketWatch.com
- 3:45pm 09/17/03 Nat'l Semi CEO can't yet declare chip recovery - Reuters U.S. Company News
OK - that's it - a snapshot of the news since 7/30.
My questions to the thread are.
1. Was anyone "keyed into" NSM prior to 7/30 and had indications that this stock was about to run?
2. Why has NSM done so well over its competitors over this time frame - is momentum simply the answer?
3. How can we all do a better job of identifying and jumping in early on stocks like NSM. We don't have to be there immediately because this gain has occurred over a 7+ week period, but the earlier it can be identified, the more appreciation can be obtained.
I haven't asked all the questions to be asked, even scratched the surface of this subject, but with all the tools available to us now on the Internet, I for one would like to find some NSM's early in the future and get in on the gains. Hopefully, working together, we can find a way to do that.
Don |
