Twp years out is a long time Greenlaw and many things could change. That's why trade and not invest. I think investing over the next 2 years is going to be a big challenge. I base my opinions on what I see in the charts, and right now, I think the Naz will find a bottom somewhere near 1500 or so, at which point we should get a counter trend rally that may last a month or two, but I doubt we get anywhere near 3500 or even 3000, and perhaps not even 2500. Actually, if 1500 comes to realization, then 2000 would be a good target as that is 30% up from that bottom. Severe recession? Yes...we have yet to see the effects of this mania collapse in full and it will take some time to run it's course. The US is pretty strong and will survive just fine, but there will be some hard times, in my opinion. You just cannot ignore the observation that an economy goes from full steam to zero growth in a matter of months, and could well retract in growth before it's done. Growth hit a brick wall and for this to happen there is something major going on. Ultimately, the Nazdaq could very well go to below 1000. Though this is extreme, it is not completely unlikely. The DOW could see 6000-7000 on the extreme side. Somewhere in the 8000's has a good chance right now.
These are my current thoughts and of course are always subject to change as the technical patterns unfold. |
