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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (11822)12/23/1997 11:02:00 AM
From: david miro benda  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
Neither I or you nor Mr. Akins know today what the level of excimer laser steppers is likely to be in the next 2-3 years. We are all guessing but you may well argue that Mr. Akins's guess should be better because, after all, he talks to the stepper makers. I would argue, however, that even though Mr. Akins should know better what the shipment level may be in the next 3-6 months his visibility beyond this time frame may not be better than mine or yours (and could be worse since as a commercial man he must be driven partly by the desire to sell and hence talk the numbers up).
If you were to analyse the laser demand in depth you would need alot of supporting raw data from the IC houses and PC makers and stepper vendors but alas that data is not available eg the number of stepper population broken by the stepper line width capability, IC output by type and layers required, yields and so on. Some of it is the most guarded secret known only to a few top managers in each company. In the end, you have to guess and make assumptions however crude. I used to cover the Japanese stepper vendors until the end of last year and if you send me your e-mail address I will send you my latest piece on this subject. It is some 13 pages and you will need a printer to make a hard copy. When you scan the stuff we can talk more.
Take care,
DM
PS> Even if Mr. Akins is right and on average Cymer ships 600 laser units each year for the next five years or so this should not do much to the share price. It may go up but the move will not be anywhere near the spectacular hike when Cymer' shipments of lasers went from single numbers to over 100 units. What has always fuelled share prices was the rate of growth in sales or better in earnings. You would agree that the rate from 10 to 100 is substantially higher than that from 400 to 600.
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