POLL: Trump Gets 7-Point Swing After Impeachment Inquiry, Dominates With Independents
dailywire.com
A new Monmouth poll released Tuesday showed only good news for President Donald Trump.
The president, fighting off the Democrats’ hyper-partisan efforts to impeach him, received a seven-point swing in his favor concerning the 2020 election. Trump also cleaned up with Independents, polling double-digits higher than any of the Democratic presidential candidates looking to take him out in 2020.
Journalists and author Ryan Girdusky reported on the Monmouth polling Tuesday morning. When participants were asked if Trump should be re-elected to the White House, Trump received a seven-point swing in his favor after the impeachment inquiry; the “no” answer to re-election dropped three points and the “yes” answer climbed four points.
The impeachment inquiry moved the numbers in Trump's favor by 7 points according to Monmouth polling
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) December 10, 2019
Trump’s favorable rating was also higher than his Democratic challengers by at least three points, though former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Peter Buttigieg (D), had lower unfavorable ratings, per Girdusky:
2020 candidates (favorable/unfavorable):
Trump: 46/52
Biden: 43/50
Sanders: 41/54
Warren: 40/50
Buttigieg: 34/35
Bloomberg: 26/54
Trump cleaned up with Independents, polling double-digits higher in his favorables than socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
2020 candidates favorability among independents (fav/unfav):
Trump: 49/48
Sanders: 39/56
Biden: 38/57
Buttigieg: 34/33
Warren: 32/55
Bloomberg: 25/56
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) December 10, 2019
As reported on Monday by The Daily Wire, the partisan impeachment proceedings also appear to be helping President Trump in key battleground states. Recent polling shows the president is now leading “every potential Democratic opponent in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three of the Rust Belt states that helped deliver Trump’s electoral victory in 2016.”
“In a report published Sunday, Firehouse Strategies presented their new quarterly battleground polling results, and they were quite grim for Democrats. In a survey of 1,759 likely 2020 general election voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania conducted last week (12/3 through 12/5), the Firehouse/Optimus pollsters found that Trump was ‘surging’ as an apparent result of the Democrats’ impeachment effort — while Democratic frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden is suffering a ‘sharp decline in support,'” The Daily Wire reported. ...
METHODOLOGY
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from December 4 to 8, 2019 with a national random sample of 903 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 363 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 540 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 838 registered voters.Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on the registered voter sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
monmouth.edu
- DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)REGISTERED VOTERS
- 27% Republican
- 42% Independent
- 31% Democrat
- 49% Male
- 51% Female
- 28% 18-34
- 34% 35-54
- 38% 55+
- 67% White
- 12% Black
- 15% Hispanic
- 6% Asian/Other
- 68% No degree
- 32% 4 year degree
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