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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 220.42+4.9%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST
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To: Peter Yang who wrote (11912)9/12/1997 10:26:00 AM
From: vegetarian   of 61433
 
In a large organization like MOT management is much less sensitive to day to day stock value as comapred to a smaller growth company like ASND. So while MOT/IBM/HWP etc will not have a problem preannouncing a shortfall of revenues, a company like ASND will since they are closely tied to stock options. ASND should have announced a shortfall when the consensus was 38c (I think it appears clear now that they would have known then that meeting 38c was a very difficult target), that would have gotten a stable stock price by now.
It is still unclear that ASND will meet revised lower estimates and can potentially surprise on the downside; also since they are keeping quiet and for investor's the only way to know what is happening is through analyst statements (who supposedly have a better access to management), the extent of ASND's problems is unclear and there is every reason to beleive at this point that the extent is much larger than it seems now.
After the initial perceived-value players are done supporting the stock the stock will go in a steady downward price movement; the sellers are exactly waiting for any bounces (which they know will come from such buyers) to get rid of the stock.
The real near-bottom will be when the price has stabilized to a low value for many days and does not move substantially from there; it may not be too hard to guess at that time.
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