January Effect 2005 Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2005

IWM 253.85

-1.5%

Dec 12 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

From: rchlrvn	12/23/2004 2:38:31 PM
	of 76

Have followed this thread last few years & found it helpful. Have what may be a pretty reliable observation======== A Dec. 1 Mark Hulbert column (CBS Marketwatch) on smallcap Dec & Jan performance suggests that Jan. smallcap outperformance in 05 may be only about half what it would be if small caps had a bad year in 04. Have tried to paste stats and selected info from it below== Smallcap average return===== All years since 1926 Dec. +1.57% nxt Jan. +4.78% Years when smallcaps lost money Jan 1-Nov 30 Dec. -1.48% next Jan. +6.90% Years when smallcaps gained Jan 1-Nov 30 Dec. +3.09% next Jan. +3.72% More from the column: "Small-cap stocks have performed very well for the first 11 months of 2004, with the Russell 2000 up 14.9 percent. Per the pattern illustrated by the table, that suggests that small-cap stocks should have a better December, and a less impressive January, than if they had lost money for the first 11 months of this year. "This in turns suggests that if you want to invest in small-caps in anticipation of a turn-of-year bounce, you should do so now rather than wait until the end of the year." I think some of you all said you didn't find much of a January effect last year. Since 03 was a very strong year for smallcaps, these stats might help explain the lack of much JE in 04. Have tried to paste link to Hulbert column below. If it doesn't work and anyone wants to go further, membership in the site is free. Trading strategies-CBS Marketwatch should get you there. cbs.marketwatch.com

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next