ken...I'm surprised that the number is so high, I mean considering that obama is the worst man made disaster ever in the USA?
Just 39% of Dems Say Obama Reelection 'Very Likely'
By JOHN MERLINE,
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 12/17/2011
news.investors.com
If recent news stories are to be believed, President Obama's reelection team thinks the prospect of this winning a second term have improved as Republican nomination battle continues and the economy shows some small signs of life.
But a new IBD/TIPP poll suggests that most people, and even most Democrats, don't rate Obama's chances of victory in 2012 high at all.
The national poll asked people how likely they think it is that Obama will win the November 2012 election. Only 23% said they think it's "very likely," with the rest offering more lukewarm assessments of his chances.
Even among Democrats, only a little more than a third (39%) believe he's very likely to get reelected, with 46% saying he's "somewhat" likely to do so, and 14% saying that his winning isn't likely to happen.
The survey also found that just 47% of all those asked think Obama deserves reelection, with 48% saying he doesn't. Independents were less supportive, with just 43% saying he deserves a second term.
The IBD/TIPP poll also found that in almost every category, Obama gets low marks on his performance. When asked to grade his handing the economy, for example, just 27% gave him an A or B; on managing the budget, that figure was 26%. Only on the Afghan war does he do well, with 41% giving him high marks.
Democrats also give their fellow Democratic president relatively low grades; just 49%, for example, gave him an A or B on his handling of the budget, and a slim majority approve of his handling of the economy.
Meanwhile, just 30% of all those surveyed say Obama is providing strong leadership for the country.
The poll isn't all bad news for Obama, however.
Despite these low marks, 47% approve of the job he's doing, compared with 45% who disapprove.
And when the "very likely" and "somewhat likely" answers to the question about his being reelected are combined, 65% say Obama could win.
Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia and director of its Center for Politics, says that's because "they recognize the power of incumbency, and they may also be rendering a judgment on the Republican field of potential Obama opponents."
Others point out that voters' predictions about the outcome of the next election could change dramatically over the next several months, depending on a number of factors, chief among them: who the GOP picks as its presidential nominee and how the economy performs next year.
"If the economy is improving, that will help Obama even if unemployment is still high before the election," says Emory University political science professor Alan I. Abramowitz. His "Time-for-Change" forecasting model, which includes the change in real GDP in the second quarter before an election, has correctly predicted presidential race results since 1988.
IBD/TIPP conducted the national poll of 911 adults from Dec. 4-11. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points.
|
