Clive Maund's latest, gloomy analysis concludes: <<Two storylines have been doing the rounds since gold plunged, designed to keep bullish hopes alive. One is that the supposedly huge disconnect that exists between the paper and physical gold price is going to lead to a massive ramp in the price. If such a price differential did exist, then Big Money would arbitrage it away. The other is that as gold is going to $10,000 or $50,000 eventually, you should not therefore be upset if the price drops a mere 30% over the short to medium-term, as you are “in it for the long haul” or “in it to win it” etc. We try to keep “one foot on the ground” and avoid Alice in Wonderland type fantasizing – sure gold could go to $50,000 if there is hyperinflation, but this is still some way off even if it’s brewing and there is not a deflationary implosion first, and anyway it not such a big deal when it takes a wheelbarrow full of banknotes to buy a loaf of bread. If it’s hope you want, nip down to the local store and buy yourself a lottery ticket, it’s a lot cheaper.>>
Maund still sees a possibility that the retreating US$ will have a surprise breakout, with unwelcome consequences for AU & commodities. Meanwhile Yamana reports squeezed qtr results, GORO has halved its div, GG is down a buck, etc. The stagflation meter is throbbing. Let's see if the Fed's news this afternoon eases or accelerates the slump. |
