The S&P Complacency Index ended the day at 23.89, down from 35.84 Tuesday. It indicates that the market is oversold, but there hasn't been a reversal in the index yet, so there's no buy signal yet. Remember, it can head under 10.
The Nasdaq Complacency Index ended the day at 22.79, which shows that without a doubt, there's going to be an immediate crash before you longs have time to get out. JUST KIDDING! Seriously, it's down from 32.09 on Tuesday, and it indicates that the Nasdaq is oversold.
The complacency indexes could definitely go lower from here, but maybe not for long. There's always the chance, though, that they can linger at low levels while the market continues to tank.
Every time I post these numbers when they start to hit extremes, my conclusions would seem to go against the grain. When the market is down, lots of people think it'll keep going down. And CNBC invariably pipes up with all sorts of good reasons why the market is down and will continue down (until it moves up, when there are all sorts of reasons why it is up and will continue up). But the complacency index is based on the general idea that when sentiment goes to one extreme or the other, the market reverses.
Maybe MSFT's earnings (or whatever spin traders decide to put on them) will help prop up the market by week's end. I have no idea. Soothsayers, crystal-gazers and TA gurus know, I'm sure, but I don't.
Other companies reporting tomorrow, I think, include EBAY, SUNW, XLNX, GTW, GENZ, ELNK, LLY, VTSS, UPS, THQI, TRB, TBL, SAWS, SAP, etc. The next couple of days should be interesting.
Here are two useful links for investors during the earnings season:
netoriginals.com
netoriginals.com |
