Pravin,
Re:"But, there would have not been any pain if the market did not insist on believing that if Intel is having problems that AMD must be having bigger problems -- fundamentals be damned."
The problem for AMD, IMHO, is that the market doesn't believe that AMD can sustain this. This industry requires you to make Billions in profit just to be viable. If AMD can keep making $200 - $500M every quarter for 6-8 more quarters, then they have a enough to invest for future and will allow then to ride out the inevitable cyclical downturn. If they can do that, the stock price will certainly reflect higher PE in due time.
Re : "I see Intel having a few quarters with negative operating income and a stock price largely devalued from the current level. I look for a PE of 15 on lowered forward earnings."
I presume you mean decreasing operating income, not losses, right ? It is a possibility. But at this level, the upside may be lot more than downside, especially in H2 2001. I would be lot more concerned about missing out on the runup than further downside over the next 12 month period.
Re:"Do you believe that Intel will warn?"
I don't know. I am not even sure if the warning for a quarter mean much (except for a few more weeks of further beating the stock might take). I am lot more anxious about the guidance for 2001, specifically, their GM forecast for 2001, P4 and .13 ramp, global PC and server demand, etc.
Maui. |
