Jack-
It's obvious that someone is gobbling up shares. This could be more of the unnamed "buyers" and/or heavy institutional buying. The intraday chart showed heavy buying whenever the stock fell back to $9. Whereas a few weeks ago, some buyers were not letting the stock fall below 6.75 or so, now $9 looks too cheap. Sounds good to me. I've already bought all I'm going to buy. I haven't bought any since I last mentioned it. I'm not doing options yet, either. I think some of this buying is short covering, but a lot of volume is also resistance selling. I think the stock could continue higher in the next few days, but there may be some heavy resistance in the $10 area.
Earnings (losses, actually) will be reported on 5/13, I believe. At that point, all of the bad news will be out (hopefully). The 200-day MA is at $10, and NM has been below this MA since 7/96. If the stock can close convincingly above $10, on high volume (and I bet the volume will be very high), most of the resistance and downtrend will be broken.
Fundamentally, National Media is worth at least double its current price. That is based on the intangible assets, such as distribution and fulfillment capabilities, and market penetration with their 365+ million households (that's more than one-quarter of the world). In addition, NM still has the ability to grow rapidly, once they get some capable management.
I'm just waiting.
Todd |
