["any thoughts on OSX here?"]
...yes; a couple of thoughts in fact ~
1. The OSX is obviously over-priced to its fundamentals due to what I view as an excess RISK PREMIUM for the potential of Mid East Oil Supply disrupptions from War.
2.Pigs get Fat, but Hogs get Slaughtered.
...when things are either richly, or fully priced beyond fair value and are receiving "all" of the RISK PREMIUM they are due - you simply lock in tight-assed stops and continually take profits on ANY & ALL further strength.
- You can maintain some upside exposure, while simultaneously reducing exposure, locking in profits and raising cash for buying the MOABO by rolling "some" profits into some outlying, out of the money "calls" in those issues most highly levered to crude prices... but, I'd be ringing the register to some significant degree on ANY & ALL further upside in the patch - with stops continually brought up behind ANY & ALL moves up.
Also, how many years in a row now; has it been prudent to play the March to May seasonal Oilpatch Rally and avoid the "JUNE SWOON" ?
...ask the futures players about seasonal trends... it's a near given in the patch.
In a nutshell...given global economics and supply; the sector is over-priced for the fundamentals - even considering the War/Supply Disruption Premium that's due.
I see very few, if any compelling buys in the patch right now.
PS: remember that everyone from Bob Brinker to the nouveau Bears were talking about the coming "MOABO" (mother of all buying opportunities) 6-9 months ago... well we aint seen it yet imho... but, we will.
Patience is a virtue... be patient, be in cash, be in gold/silver... and wait for the MOABO... it's coming; when, not if...and then everything will be cheap; but few will have the cash on hand to do anything about it. |
