Gregg, Bill Frezza seems to be running out of steam! Your posts at CMP are great! Can I copy one of them over here please?
Meanwhile, Ira says:
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Ira Brodsky
ibrodsky@ix.netcom.com
(Feel free to distribute with copyright notice)
TOTALLY UNPLUGGED * IRA BRODSKY
Critics Try To Sink CDMA
Sure, conspiracy theories are seductive. That's why I did a double take when I realized one had infected the telecommunications industry.
According to some pundits, dozens of telecommunications firms have bet their futures on a new radio technology, called code division multiple access (CDMA), which everyone knows will never work. Allegedly, these companies are victims of the "CDMA mafia." Like zombies, hundreds of executives are committing hari-kari [sic] just to drive up CDMA-inventor Qualcomm, Inc.'s stock price.
This story would probably end in a psychiatric ward were it not that the conspiracy theory has found an audience. After all, how could so many firms have selected such an "unproven" technology?
There is good answer to that question. More than 90% of the world's
inhabitants have never made a phone call. In developing countries,
wireless could prove the quickest and least expensive way to deliver basic telephone service. In developed countries, wireless will play a crucial role in introducing local phone competition. CDMA is a high-risk solution, but if it works, the rewards could be awesome.
Today, there are two contenders for the title of global wireless standard: time division multiple access (TDMA) and CDMA. The winner will be the one that offers the least expensive airtime -- and that will be the one that offers the greatest capacity.
TDMA promises higher capacity by dividing conventional radio channels into time slots. In essence, TDMA serves more users by giving each less. TDMA is the basis for the global system for mobile communications (GSM), a government-mandated standard in Europe.
CDMA takes a radically different approach: it puts multiple users on the same wideband channel at the same time by assigning each a unique "code". In a sense, CDMA serves more users by giving each more. Compared to TDMA, CDMA promises greater capacity, better coverage, enhanced audio quality, and extended battery life. The first CDMA commercial services were launched in Asia. In the U.S., large-scale CDMA launches are under way.
Is CDMA a fraud? Over 40 companies have licensed CDMA technology including Northern Telecom, Inc. and Hughes Network Systems, Inc. More than 20 cellular and PCS carriers are deploying CDMA, including Ameritech Cellular Services and GTE MobilNet, Inc.. And MCI Communications Corp. has agreed to purchase 10 billion minutes of CDMA airtime from Qualcomm spinoff NextWave Telecom, Inc..
The conspiracy theory explains it all away. Why would so many top-drawer companies buy-in to CDMA? Because Qualcomm Chairman Irwin Jacobs is a slick salesman. Why would Motorola, Inc. and Lucent Technologies, Inc. make CDMA the centerpiece of their wireless strategies? Because they have no other strategy; Ericsson and Nokia Corp. already dominate the TDMA market (but just to be safe, they have also purchased CDMA licenses). And why would a savvy company like MCI let itself be swindled? Because MCI has
outsmarted the swindlers: the deal includes warrants for NextWave stock that will let MCI pick up some inexpensive spectrum when the CDMA scam unravels.
Still, there are nagging questions. Usually, when people realize they've been hoodwinked, they demand retribution. But not CDMA victims. Somehow, the perpetrators of this fraud have found a way to transform their victims into fresh recruits. For example, AirTouch Communications, Inc. must know by now the CDMA network it built in Los Angeles doesn't work, yet the company insists it does. And Sprint PCS and PCS PrimeCo L.P., two of the three largest PCS licensees, continue to bet the farm on CDMA.
Nope, there is a simpler explanation. CDMA entrepreneurs have arrows in their backs because they are pioneers. The only thing they are guilty of is daring to develop a superior technology.
Conspiracy theories may be alluring, but they are almost always false.
What really makes the pundits paranoid is the possibility CDMA will
succeed.
Brodsky is President of Datacomm Research Co., a Wilmette, Ill., consulting firm. He can be reached via the Internet at ibrodsky@ix.netcom.com
c Copyright 1996 Network World, Framingham, MA
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Thanks Ira. I suppose we are preaching to the converted a bit here, but no doubt quite a few people will find it interesting.
Maurice. |
