Hi Dick: MONKY BIZ..but AOL is sliding down..
It would take me a lot of time to explain it and I really feel bad
tonight, ( sick )..I did track AOL most all day..and the way she
bounced up and down..all I can say a lot of the up and down, is
being caused by the market makers, and the way she is trading
does not look to me to be according to SEC rules..the order
influx stays on and is one way the MM can get around short selling
on the down tick., as there is no tick..in addition what we are
seeing on the screen is an artificial, price ( even the ask and
bid if you have one that shows it is artificial ) the MM seem to
be using a pool and working a bigger spread than they want you to
know about, 3 days in a row now I'v printed out the inter day
charts at the end of the day and compared them with the ticker,
it's confusing..but the price is being manipulated..and the
spread seems to be avg. .75..( were .25 is what they are showing)
any way it looks me the Market Makers are skimming her fairly
good..and that is all separate from the pros an cons about
the virtues or lack of them in respect AOL per se..
You might be happy to know..that EVEN though AT CLOSING TIME,
she showed..closing at 36-1/8, after they stopped trading
at ( 4pm ) they got together took the pool of market sell
orders they received..and matched them with the earlier buy
orders and re posted the close at 36-3/4..gee I doubt I'm
saying this right, ( but the sellers never really got that 36-3/4)
about the best they got was 36..a few may have got 36.25, but
the big majority were only given 35.75..I believe that
order influx, is rigged by who ever is making market on AOL,
and this is putting additional pressure on the stock at a bad
time for AOL..it's not being really being auctioned off, but
being treated like it was a nasdaq stock, IMHO..
well now that I told you she closed at 36-3/4 not 36-1/8 maybe
you feel a little better..however it would not be honest of me
to leave it there..two mornings in a row now..and it's not
on the news..at least I'v seen no one mention it..she gaps
down in the morning..like yesterday she closed at 37-1/4,
well with out saying there was before the bell trading,
( no mention of it ) well she opened not at 37-1/4 but at
36-7/8 ( a half point gap down )..then within seven minutes
she drops another point to 35-7/8..then retraces in about
30 min to 36.50...that was not enough spread for them so with
almost no volume they let her sink again to 35.25..then retrace
back up to 36.50..from then on she smoothed out some, and
it looks to me that 87,500 shares must have been market order
sells, as that's the amount of volume that was adjusted at the
end of the trading day. and those poor blokes will only get
the 35.25 for their stock..yet best I can tell only 100 shares
really got bought that cheep..the spread on that 87.5 k went
into the pockets of the market makers..and a big spread that
was , 1.5..on 87.5 k..plus about .75..on the rest, you can
tell people all you want not to put in market orders, but a lot
of them do it any way..well it's their money..but it makes it
hard on a dumb butt like me to figure out what the price of
the stock is really doing over the course of the day..she
averaged about 36.25..that's the best I can come to it..
to much artificial crap going on..taking all the volume..and
averaging the price..now I can't find yesterdays at this time
( papers all over the place ) I don't save it to disk..no good after
several days..as the style changes to much, ( MM personalities )
but I avg the 22nd..and I'm looking at that..and it was..39-7/8
so in two days the avg share price has dropped 3-5/8..
Damm I bet I'm either confusing you or, telling you what you already
know, but if it don't help maybe some body will read it and make
some sense out of it <G>
So any way what I'm saying is you can't just take the high and low
of the day, and split it and really know what the stock price
averaged..as maybe just a few sold at the high..and a lot at the
low..or the other way around, to get a real avg for the day you
would have to record every sale and volume..I can't do that
but a good inter day graph..puts me real close..one more tit bit
what you see as the open, and what you see as the close,. does not
always reflect what the stock is doing or which way it is moving,
only an avg can do that..they can play mind games with you and
pop a stock up at the end of the day with just a few shares that
bid high early in the morning, like wise they can pop her down..
if you look at fast climbs, or drops ( with very little volume )
the market makers are play mind games..to get high buy bids..and
low sell bids..to put in their pool..so you tell me why would they
show the 36-3/4 close..nobody got any were near that for their
shares except maybe one bloke sold a 100 and who wonders how he got so lucky, but I bet a lot bought at that price..and just as many
sold at 35.25...at first that might look like the avg would be
in between the two..but no it's more to it than that..as that would
just give you an avg. of 36..were it was more like 36.25..
summery..the open and close..the high and the low..could be a sort
of slight of hand..if your money is invested better find a way
to get the real avg..before you jump to conclusions that a stock
went up or down by so much today..as it could even be going the
other way..mean while the market makers are patting them selves
on the back for faking out several thousand people..
Dave you got your stock today at 36-1/8 you got in below the
avg..and I guess that's good..if your here for the long term..
( and if she don't go belly up ) short term I see her going
down...medium term I see her down..long term..I don't see,
as no one can..hell the company could go bankrupt..and if the
mutual funds wanted to the could still make the stock price
any level they agree on..( then use that as collateral ) to
borrow money..inflate inflate per chance to dream..what dreams
we fly off unto we know not of..
every bank and every credit co is doing it..trying to stay ahead
of the government..borrow that cheap gov interest..pay it back
with money that's worth less..then do spin and blame it all
on Greenspam..got to have our scape goat you know..
Good luck..but sure enough I'm buying more puts tomorrow..
BTW WAY if I thought there was any subtance to Disney wanting
AOL..I would also short the hell out of Disney..if AOL would
franchise out she could make it..she is to centralized..and top
heavy..for this kind of service, but she won't consider that.
I'v known her a long time..way before she came on the net..she
is still trying to run a BBS system..and that sort of hybird
is pron to all kinds of ills..in an enviorment such as the
web presents. They need some new ideas, and a new style
compleatly..who ever gets a good franshise system going,
first will be the big mac on the net..all others will take
a back seat..if AOl don't wake up, they will follow the path
Kmart took, after Walmart came on the scean..that's that
the way I feel I may not live to see it, so jus remember me
in your prayers when you see it happen..
Jim
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