A sudden comity in heated Sacramento battles
By Daniel Weintraub -- Bee Columnist
Published 2:15 am PDT Thursday, June 23, 2005
A series of poll results released this week look bad for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose personal standing with the voters has dropped to a new low while two of his three proposed ballot measures are getting a tepid early read from the electorate.
But at a time when you would expect the Democrats to be going in for the kill, figuring they can finish off the governor's agenda with a scorched earth campaign through the November special election, the Capitol is suddenly buzzing with talk of cooperation instead of confrontation.
Democratic legislative leaders, after months of nothing but criticism of the governor's proposals, are now rolling out alternatives. They say they would love to negotiate a deal that would allow them to march arm in arm with the governor toward the Nov. 8 election behind a unity slate of policy changes on which they all agree.
What's going on?
There are a couple of plausible explanations. One is that the Democrats are simply posturing because they know the voters want them to try to work with the governor. As they prepare to head into battle, this theory would suggest, the Democrats want to look like the nice guys who did everything they could to find a solution before going on the attack.
But what if they are serious? Why would the Democrats, just when the governor appears to be sinking, throw him a life raft?
The answer can be found by taking a closer look at those poll numbers, released this week by the nonpartisan Field Poll. The survey of 905 California adults occurred June 13-19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
There is no doubt that Schwarzenegger's performance rating has taken a beating, dropping from 55 percent approval in February to just 37 percent today. And two of his ballot measures - on the budget process and the system for drawing political boundaries - start the campaign in disfavor, which in California initiative politics typically signifies imminent death. The budget measure is trailing 35 percent to 42 percent, while the proposal on redistricting is behind 35 percent to 46 percent.
But two other initiatives, one that is officially part of the governor's package and one that he likes but has not yet endorsed, are doing very well. And they happen to be the two initiatives that the Democrats' allies among organized labor probably are most concerned about.
One is a proposal backed by the governor to change the way public schoolteachers are hired and fired in California. It would require teachers to work five years rather than just two before gaining permanent status, and it would make it easier for school districts to dismiss even permanent teachers who are found to be performing unsatisfactorily. That measure is leading, 62 percent to 31 percent.
The other one to keep your eye on is a proposal to make it tougher for public employee unions to use union dues for political purposes. It would require unions to get a written sign-off each year from every member whose dues were used for campaign contributions or other political work. It is leading 57 percent to 34 percent.
In this early polling, the union dues initiative is doing surprisingly well among Democrats - tied at 46 percent to 46 percent - and among households with a union member, where it trails by only 45 percent to 52 percent. While it makes sense that rank-and-file union members, unlike union leaders, would support a proposal that gives members more control over their money, that number is likely to fall as the campaign becomes more polarized and partisan. Still, the measure starts out with a comfortable lead with which to work.
And it is the union dues measure that most animates the labor-left coalition that has opposed Schwarzenegger's agenda. Coalition members floated proposals on prescription drugs and car buyers' rights in part to pressure the governor not to support the dues measure. And they have insisted there will be no deal on other issues unless the governor agrees not to support the dues proposal.
So as the campaign gears up, both sides have reason to seek a peace deal that would avoid an all-out confrontation.
Schwarzenegger, as he has throughout his time as governor, might want to settle for the near-certainty of making incremental progress on issues he has highlighted, rather than taking the risk of going for broke and losing. A loss would severely weaken his ability to use the ballot as leverage in future negotiations and put him on the defensive just as he is deciding whether to seek a full term next year.
The Democrats and their public employee union allies, meanwhile, have to wonder if they can defeat the proposals to change tenure rules and undercut union influence. It is possible that by spending tens of millions of dollars, they could defeat both measures and the rest of the governor's agenda. But it is just as possible they could spend all of that money and lose. Then their coffers would be depleted heading into the 2006 elections at the same time they are dealing with a new rule that makes it harder for them to replenish those war chests.
No wonder everybody's talking. |
