The Spanish Mainman
By EURSOC Two
29 June, 2005
Zappo's other friend
Has Tony Blair gained an unlikely new ally? EURSOC has been super-sceptical about the grand claims some commentators have made for Blair's chances of leading the EU, but now even serious reporters like John Vinocur have joined in.
According to Vinocur, who is usually spot-on in his analysis of Europe's power shifts, Spain's Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has "corrected his course" to take in Blair's ascent and the declining fortunes of his previous allies, Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder.
Now, if this were true, it would be a turn-up for the books. When Zappo was elected in March 2003, his first move (apart from declaring Spanish troops would leave Iraq) was to align himself with the Franco-German alliance. Prostrating himself before a delighted Chirac and Schröder, he pledged to bring Spain's foreign policy back in line with "traditional" European values. Blair, like the ousted PM José Maria Aznar, represented an alien, Atlanticist tradition, now doomed by the Franco-German-Spanish power trio.
A change of direction, then, would take many commentators by surprise. That said, few expect Schröder to survive as Germany's chancellor beyond September. Chirac, deprived of his major ally, will have a lonely 18 months before his term ends. A wise leader might chose to extract himself delicately from any binding committments to these fading stars - and that, Vinocur reports, is just what Zapatero has been doing:
"With no national voting on the horizon until March 2008 and good economic figures to steady his nerves, Zapatero can look into the future and change headings without excessive embarrassment. Since Tony Blair began his charge at European Union leadership and reform, the Spanish Socialist prime minister has started detaching himself - in what looks like a series of inconspicuous little surgeries - from the Gerhard Schröders and Jacques Chiracs that Spain judges no longer hold Europe in their grip.
"...Zapatero has joined the Finns, Swedes and Dutch in voting no on the budget with the British at the failed EU summit meeting two weeks ago. His Spain has, with Italy, dodged embracing a German candidacy for a United Nations security council seat; or backing a proposal for another EU summit talkathon, favored by the French and Germans, and meant to slow the momentum of the British presidency that begins Friday.
"Now Zapatero has scheduled, a bit conspicuously, a meeting with Blair in London late in July."
Spain's Minister for Europe was full of praise for Blair's speech in the European Parliament last week: "It was full of real leadership and it was very European," said Alberto Navarro, "I'm sure Zapatero shares that view. On many agendas, we're fully with the United Kingdom."
So, should EURSOC change its tune on Zappo? Should we start talking about Britain's plucky ally, taking on the Franco-German axis, refusing to become another Belgium or Luxembourg? Er, no.
First of all, Blair's speech was hardly controversial. Italy's right-wing government welcomed it, but so did Italy's leftist opposition.
A former adviser to Aznar warns Blair to play it cool: Rafael Bardají told Vinocur that he expects the British PM to be "too smart to have anything but the lowest expectations from Zapatero."
Bardaji claims that Zapatero's course change is merely to fend off domestic criticism that he backed the wrong horse in aligning himself with Germany and France.
Moreover, from EURSOC's angle, the collapse in confidence in the EU has simply allowed nation states to pursue their national interests more transparently than before.
Zapatero probably realised that he would never be anything more than a very junior partner in the Franco-German affair. Flexibility is more rewarding than rigid dedication to a failing partnership - and you can bet that if by some miracle Schröder wins a third term this autumn, Zappo will be back in Franco-German clutches. Indeed, Zapatero might well be hoping for such an outcome: Angela Merkel's party, probably allied to a bunch of severe Catholic conservatives from Bavaria, does not look like a natural partner for the secular Spanish socialist.
Spain also has a larger "market" outside Europe than Germany and even France. The Spanish speaking world is large and dynamic, and The Old Country likes to play Mother Nation to Latin America.
This has resulted in some unpleasant manoeuvring: Zapatero recently persuaded the EU to drop its objections to Fidel Castro's latest bout of oppression in Cuba, and in April signed seven guns, energy, commerce and security deals with Venezuela's dreadful president, Hugo Chavez.
Chavez and Zapatero also declared their committment to creating a "multipolar world" - increasingly transparent diplomatic code for "let's take every opportunity to annoy the Americans."
Zappo wants to have his torta and eat it: He's also pushing for Spain to be included in the G8 rich nations grouping. He has a good case, as Spain is now the world's 8th richest nation, thanks not least to his predecessor Aznar's economic reforms, which Zapatero has sensibly left alone. If granted a seat at the world's most exclusive club, he would "defend the downtrodden" - yes, like Chirac does for France, no doubt.
All that being said, Blair will probably unbend to at least some of Zapatero's overtures. Vinocur is right to highlight similarities between the two men, not least an agreement that "the great obstacle by unanimous diagnosis" to reforming Europe is a certain M Chirac. |
