1964 versus 2004
Polipundit
1964 was the high watermark of the Roosevelt Coalition. Having just entered the White House, Lyndon Johnson used his enormous popularity to crush Republican Barry Goldwater in a national landslide.
In many ways, 2004, coming 40 years after the Johnson landslide, is fascinating because it also featured a Texan incumbent, only this one was a Republican.
How has the electoral dynamic changed since 1964? Using the 1964 map, John Kerry would have won 270 electoral votes and President Bush 268. Instead, President Bush won 286 electoral votes, and Kerry, only 252.
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New York had 43 electoral votes. Now it has 31.
Pennsylvania had 29 electoral votes. Now is has 21.
Michigan had 21 electoral votes. Now it has 17.
Illinois had 26 electoral votes. Now it has 21.
New Jersey had 17 electoral votes. Now it has 15.
Massachusetts had 14 electoral votes. Now it has 12.
These were the large six states that gave Kennedy their electoral votes in 1960 and his “victory.” In 1964, they had 150 electoral votes. Now, these same six account for 117 electoral votes. That is a decline of nearly 30%.
In 2010, New York will lose another 2 seats, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts, one seat apiece. These six states will lose another 6 electoral votes. That will take them down to 111.
That is a decrease of 35%. Life is rough if you are a Democrat today.
-- Alexander K. McClure
Demographics
Following up on Alex McClure’s post, I too have been talking about political demographics lately.
Specifically, the fact that Texas and Florida and various states below the Mason-Dixon line will be adding electoral votes over the coming decades, whereas Democrat bastions like New York and Massachusetts will be losing them.
And now it’s high time to put all this into perspective.
Ahem.
The Democrat Party last won a national majority back in 1976. That’s when my teachers were telling me to watch out for global cooling and acid rain, but I digress.
Especially in light of future population and thus Electoral College trends, the following raw statistics will demonstrate key elements of the political re-alignment process in which the country has been engaged over the past 36 years:
Texas
48% = Gerald Ford in 1976.
61% = George W. Bush in 2004.
Florida
47% = Gerald Ford.
52% = George W. Bush (’04).
North Carolina
44% = Gerald Ford.
56% = George W. Bush (’04).
Texas has gone from holding 26 electoral votes, in 1976, to having 34 today. Florida has gone from having 17 to 27. North Carolina has increased from 13 to 15. And in light of their outsized and ongoing population gains, Texas and Florida, in particular, will be adding mucho electoral votes after every Census – for as far as the eyes can see.
On the other hand, New York and Massachusetts, along with Pennsylvania and Michigan, are and will be heading in the opposite direction. In 1976, those states combined for 103 electoral votes. Last year, however, they combined merely for 81 such votes.
Yeah, that’s right, Texas and Florida have increased their combined electoral vote share by 42% over the past 30-odd years, whereas New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts have lost 21% of their combined Electoral College clout.
It’s raw math.
And unlike newspaper editorials or poli-sci coursebooks, raw math never lies.
Lastly, for those perma-nervous conservatives out there who lose sleep about New Mexico and Nevada each and every day, check this out:
New Mexico
50.5 = Gerald Ford.
50.0 = George W. Bush (’04).
Nevada
50% = Gerald Ford.
51% = George W. Bush (’04).
The Democrat Party is not a growth industry.
And things will get *worse* for them as time marches on.
-- Jayson
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