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Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS)

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To: The Gambler who wrote (1214)	3/3/1998 4:58:00 PM
From: Rudy Saucillo	Read Replies (1) of 2173

Gambler, I've heard others comment about the similarity of the ALTN/HMRI breakup. To be honest, I see little similarity, if any. The ALTN partnership ended shortly after Marion Merrell Dow and Hoechst merged. As with all large pharma mergers, ongoing programs, partnerships, and collaborations were reviewed and re-prioritized. One result of this re-prioritization was the ending of the ALTN partnership. The important point here is that this took place before the completion of their Phase II studies. That is, there was very little human data at that point in time and efficacy had not been established. The AMLN story is different in that the Phase III data (from 2 trials) released last year was not at all impressive. The recent protocol changes to 3 of the 4 ongoing Phase III trials - an attempt to maximize potential for desired results - did not inspire confidence. Finally, last week's news of the ERGO/JNJ partnership was a major red flag that JNJ was not pleased with AMLN's progress. I hope the results from the European trials are positive. But given the marginal results to date and JNJ's departure, this is a major question - irrespective of AMLN's spin on the matter. Rudy

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