Why AIDS in Botswana in such high numbers, especially because the economic prospects are so high, and the country can afford education and treatment?
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Editorial
AIDS:
Security Implications for Africa
iss.co.za
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Published in African Security Review Vol 10 No 4, 2001
A recently released report gives a chilling account of the deadly conflict raging in one of sub-Saharan Africa’s few success stories: Botswana.
“The war in Botswana rages unabated. While the origins of the conflict remain murky, the appalling devastation is painfully clear. Estimates vary, but more than 100 000 have died as a result of the fighting, and that figure continues to escalate by the day. One in three adults in Botswana have been wounded. At Gaborone’s main hospital, up to 80% of the beds in the male ward are filled with wounded who are not expected to survive … The toll on the beleaguered Botswana military continues to be alarmingly high, with more than one-third of the forces suffering casualties. Such attrition causes loss of continuity at command level and within the ranks, increases costs for the recruitment and training of replacements, and reduces military preparedness, internal stability and external security.”
An International Crisis Group report, from which the above excerpt is taken, effectively uses the analogy of war to demonstrate the devastation the HIV/AIDS epidemic is causing in Botswana. As the report points out:
“The war raging in Botswana is AIDS. All the statistics are true but not a single shot has been fired. However, AIDS is taking a toll as profound as any military confrontation around the globe, and it is a security threat to countries it assaults as well as its neighbours.”
Botswana is no exception when it comes to HIV/AIDS, but rather at the forefront of a general regional trend of rising infection and mortality levels. At the end of 2000, 36 million people were living with HIV/AIDS. Of these, 25 million (or 70%) were living in sub-Saharan Africa, even though only a tenth of the world’s population lives in the region. Every day, 6000 Africans die from AIDS, and an additional 11 000 are infected.
At the end of 1999, there were 16 countries (all in sub-Saharan Africa) in which more than one-tenth of the adult population aged 15–49 years was infected with HIV. In seven countries (all in Southern Africa), at least one adult in five was living with the virus. The lifetime risk of dying of AIDS is high in these countries. For example, where adult prevalence is 15%, and rates continue to apply throughout their lifetime, over half of today’s 15-year-olds will die. In Botswana, with a prevalence rate of 36%, over three-quarters will die of AIDS.
Little analysis has been done of the HIV/AIDS epidemic as both a cause and a consequence of insecurity. This is odd given that in many parts of Africa, AIDS is affecting the lives of individuals and communities in drastic ways. The epidemic is altering the continent’s demographic future, reducing life expectancy, raising mortality, lowering fertility, creating an excess of men over women, and leaving millions of orphans in its wake.
HIV/AIDS does not fit into the traditional definition of security, interpreted in militaristic terms as the military defence of the state. The epidemic does, however, pose a widespread and non-violent threat to the existence of individuals and their communities. By threatening people’s economic, food, health, personal, community and political security, HIV/AIDS has become a primary threat to human security in sub-Saharan Africa.
At the first United Nations (UN) Security Council debate on the impact of AIDS on peace and security in Africa in early 2000, the UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, told the Council that the impact of AIDS in Africa was as destructive as warfare:
“By overwhelming the continent’s health and social services, by creating millions of orphans, and by decimating health workers and teachers, AIDS is causing social and economic crises which in turn threaten political stability … In already unstable societies, this cocktail of disasters is a sure recipe for more conflict. And conflict, in turn, provides fertile ground for further infections.”
In this issue of the African Security Review, the feature articles explore a number of important relationships between HIV/AIDS and human security in sub-Saharan Africa. Lindy Heinecken, a researcher with the Centre for Military Studies in South Africa, focuses on the epidemic’s impact on the armed forces of Southern Africa. It is estimated that HIV prevalence rates are about twice as high in the armed forces of Southern Africa, compared to their civilian populations. The epidemic is likely to impact on all the generic processes involved in ensuring a combat-ready military force: force procurement, force preparation, force employment and force sustainment.
Randy Cheek, an African Analyst with the Security Strategy and Policy Branch at the National Defense University in Washington DC, explores the link between the inequitable treatment of HIV-positive persons and political instability. The uneven distribution of HIV/AIDS treatment (which, when properly applied, can extend the average life span of an HIV-positive person by many years), based on social, ethnic or political criteria can lead to political unrest and instability. This is especially so in the context of HIV/AIDS, where a denial of treatment can lead to rapid death. In many sub-Saharan African countries, limited state health services and medical practitioners are concentrated in the larger urban areas. The division between those who have access to regular treatment and those who do not, has the potential to polarise African societies based on access to basic services and income.
Pieter Fourie and Martin Schönteich look at the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on economic and food security, governance, political stability, humanitarian emergencies, and military and peacekeeping operations. They further explore the impact the epidemic could have on crime levels. Southern Africa’s growing number of AIDS orphans could be at greater than average risk to engage in criminal activity. Many orphaned African children who will grow up under extreme levels of poverty are likely to commit a range of property-related crimes. Moreover, it would appear that the kind of psychological trauma and lack of parental affection and supervision experienced by AIDS orphans is a good predictor of subsequent delinquency and violent criminal activity.
Africa’s security is under threat. Given the magnitude of the epidemic and the number of existing threats to security on the continent, it is crucial that the linkages between HIV/AIDS and human security are fully explored. It is hoped that this issue of the African Security Review will succeed in making a small but important contribution to achieving this goal.
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