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Strategies & Market Trends : The Covered Calls for Dummies Thread
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To: RP Svoboda who wrote (1225)6/27/2001 10:33:10 AM
From: JohnM   of 5205
 
I have decided to hold off on writing against my Jan 04 leaps (50) again until after we figure out what the implications of the Sprint,Verizon and China infrastructure buildouts are. I remember long ago when Globalstar gateway earth stations made up for a lack of handset sales when the Q was "between product lines". I have the gut feeling that current infrastructure sales will make up for a lot of lost handset sales now that we are once again between product lines. As a result, I think the Q will announce in line with positive forward looking statements (finally including China sales in the estimates) which will cause a short term pop. Then sell again the Aug XX.

I've been reluctant to write ccs with specific market timing goals. Rather, I'm trying to minimize its effect by thinking my way into ways the market might surprise me, given the necessary assumptions one must bring to any cc write.

As for Qcom, my own guesses are very much like yours, though I would not be willing to bet on the August downturn. Qcom strikes me as able to go to 40 or 70 in the near future, though, apparently, like you, I believe its long term future is remarkable.

Frank remarked either here or in a phone conversation I had with him that he does not expect Qcom to begin another serious runup until the 2.5g buildout begins to show up in earnings reports. I basically agree with that though I would expect it to be a bit sooner, given the high level of institutional interest in the stock and their willingness to buy out ahead of good news. Having said that, I think it unlikely until the general economic direction is a bit clearer.

John
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