Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 178.29

-1.6%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (123725)	9/2/2002 12:52:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	of 152472

The main assumption behind most of these estimates is that the past can predict the future, at least in the short term. i have read of a study showing that compared to the inflation predictions of a group of economists, the most accurate prediction was simply to extrapolate the immediate past onto the immediate future for any given period. such is to say that the cumulative value-added of economists' predictions is less than zero. very similar to the cumulative alpha of active investors. the examples that Jon's article shows, wherein sell-side economists did worse than academics and boutique economists, are quite predictable, given that we are in a bearish economy and the sell-side has an inherently bullish bias. contrariwise, sell-side analysts benefit from their bullish bias in a bull market. e.g., Abby Joseph Cohen's perennial bullishness was "on the mark" in the late 90s. just luck, but people who believed her were "fooled by randomness". now Darfot is making up for lost time, and making the likes of Abby to look like the sideshow entertainment they really are.

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