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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 337.09+0.2%Dec 4 4:00 PM EST
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To: Lone Ranger who wrote (1244)6/13/2001 1:21:03 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
Sayrep: Re: "do you think there is any bad news that will crack this market?"

Market is starting to show cracks internally and I am focusing on techs. here although the same can be said for the broader market. There are sectors of tech. that are selling lower than where they were off the bounce in April. See the NWX (networking index) and HWI (AMEX Hardware Index)to name two. Also, there is an increasing number of broken charts on individual stocks. The new highs are contracting on successive rallies. The volume is declining on those rallies. If this is a bull move, than it is a sickly one. After all those rate cuts and fanfare we have not moved -- this is not a bull market environment.

On the other hand, the Sox and BTK have held up well. I would keep my eye on the SOX. At some point, it will break lower IMO. Also, there are many shorts who cover now and then in a flurry on a pop based on so called "good news."

So the end result of all these forces is prolonged chop up and down without any real direction, although of late the direction is with a downwards bias. Bulls and bears argue all day on SI and there is not much to argue about now IMO. It is all chop. I guess that is why the arguments seem so intense of late <g>.

I would not read too much into this triple witch week one way or the other. The action this morning made no sense so I suspect the options expirations are at work.

Re: "it seems that even the slowing of europe and asia is already priced into the market."

I don't agree. I think we will hear more about this in the coming weeks. I expect the warnings to be overwhelming. I expect no visibility. Oh sure, someone will again say they can see the bottom. Good, but how long will they be tracking the bottom? I expect longer than most think at this point. Layoffs continue.

Re: "the market just refuses to crack. what do you forsee as the catalyst? tia."

Well, it has cracked from the highs. As for a move lower. I can imagine many exogenous events. But what is the point? Who knows if they will come to fruition. I think more and more of the same will give the market something to reconsider.

I think the "V" is priced in the market. I think that presumption is vulnerable since I view it as priced in the market. We will get rallies on any "good news." This market is primed to rally on good news, especailly when it is OVERSOLD. Shorts and money on the sidelines will give you a rally. But any such news is quickly met with crappy news and crappy news is sold in OVERBOUGHT markets.

Sentiment is now driving the markets. Liquidity and lower rates are offset by by crappy earnings, no visibility and high relative P/Es. So this is a sentiment market IMO. Sentiment swings give you the chop because sentiment changes intensely and frequently.
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