Al Qaeda’s Anti-Election offensive in Afghanistan
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Austin Bay Blog
While in Afghanistan last month, several senior coalition officers told us that Al Qaeda and the Taliban were planning on “disrupting” the September parliamentary elections. of course, Al Qaeda and the Taliban said they would disrupt last October’s presidential elections, and they failed. The Afghan people were victorious.
Afghan and coalition forces began their own election defense operations three or four months ago. Bascially, these ops are what the military calls “shaping operations” or prepatory operations. From what I gleaned in open, unclassified discussion, the operations are designed to monitor and intercept Taliban infiltrators. A couple of the larger operations –in my estimation– were “spoiling attacks” aimed at Taliban and Al Qaeda rendezvous sites or suspected assembly areas.
Several officers pointed out that “improvised explosive devices” (IEDs) were showing up in Afghanistan. According to an analysis provided by Coalition Joint Task Force -76 (the US-led headquarters located at Bagram Air Base), there were 30 IED detonations before and during the October 2004 elections. 33 others were found prior to detonation (by various security forces or turned in by civilians). Senior officers in briefings and troops on patrol duty all told me they suspect the Taliban and Al Qaeda will use many more IEDs in the August and September run-up to the parliamentary elections. The Taliban and Al Qaeda want to intimidate the Afghan public. In fact, both organizations are at war with the Afghan public and IEDs are “anti-civilian” weapons. There is another factor, one I touched on in the article I wrote for the latest issue of The Weekly Standard: Iraq has demonstrated that IEDs draw immense press coverage.
I occasionally receive email press releases from Afghanistan (the same ones that go to the wire services). Here’s a release dated July 20, 2005. It reports on IED discoveries as well as weapons caches. Note the Afghan National Police were involved in three of the four incidents. Several intensive training programs for Afghan police began in 2003. It looks like those programs are paying off.
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BAGRAM AIRFIELD, Afghanistan – One improvised explosive device and another suspected IED were discovered by Afghan and U.S. forces July 19 near Orgun-E and Ghazni in eastern Afghanistan.
The device near Orgun E was discovered by a U.S. patrol conducting security operations in the area. A team of experts from a nearby U.S. base was called to the scene after the device was rendered safe.
The second, suspected IED was discovered by Afghan intelligence agents and reported to U.S. forces. Afghan National Police officers secured the site until U.S. forces could arrive. A team of explosive-ordnance-disposal experts moved the suspected IED to a safe location before destroying it.
Elsewhere in Afghanistan, two caches of munitions were recovered by Afghan intelligence personnel and Afghan police.
The first cache, discovered northeast of Qalat, consisted of 18 anti-tank missile warheads. It been collected by Afghan intelligence agents from locations in the local area. The warheads will be taken to a nearby base for destruction.
The second cache was discovered by U.S. forces inside a cave in the vicinity of Bamian and consisted of 50 mortar rounds. Local police secured the site until EOD personnel arrived and destroyed the items.
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